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Measurement Method Improvement of China’s Potential Output: Based on the Synthetically Evaluation of Fuzzy Entropy

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Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem (GRMSE 2015)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 569))

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Abstract

Potential output and output gap are important reference variables in economy cycle fluctuation. According to the situation, that measurement methods of potential output are numerous and independent, this article establishes the improvement method based on synthetically evaluation of fuzzy entropy. This method could produce discourse domain for different measurement results, calculate membership function value with the method of local replacement iteration, and determine the best time series of output gap. Empirical results shows, that the output gap of 1992Q1-2013Q3, which is obtained by the improvement method, is better than the estimated values of HP filtering method, production function method, and Vector auto-regression in terms of predictive ability of inflation, the agreement degree of factual economic cycle, and stability.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    National Statistic Bureau of China, http://data.stats.gov.cn/workspace/index?m=hgjd.

  2. 2.

    Data are published by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of China on quarterly press conference..

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economics and Commerce, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou Higher Education Mega Centre, Panyu District, Guangzhou, 510006, China

    Rubin Chen

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  1. Rubin Chen
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Correspondence to Rubin Chen .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

    Fuling Bian

  2. Eastern Michigan University, Ypsilanti, China

    Yichun Xie

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Chen, R. (2016). Measurement Method Improvement of China’s Potential Output: Based on the Synthetically Evaluation of Fuzzy Entropy. In: Bian, F., Xie, Y. (eds) Geo-Informatics in Resource Management and Sustainable Ecosystem. GRMSE 2015. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 569. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-49155-3_44

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-49155-3_44

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