Interdiction of Plots with Multiple Operatives

Abstract

On Christmas Day, 2009, a former president of the Islamic Society at University College London, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, came within a detonation of bringing down a transatlantic airliner flying into Detroit. He is the fourth president of a London student Islamic society to face terrorist charges in 3 years. A fortnight later, at London’s Old Vic Theatre, a revival of John Guare’s classic play ‘Six Degrees of Separation’ opened, reminding Londoners how small is the world of social networks, and encouraging the thought that terrorist networks might not be so hard to dismantle. The public discourse on counter-terrorism intelligence is usually presented in a qualitative way, which is natural given the administrative training of the leaders of intelligence and law enforcement agencies. A quantitative analysis is presented of the intelligence challenge of gaining entry into terrorist networks, and interdicting terrorist plots. Avoiding a further slide towards a surveillance society, counter-radicalization is shown to be the key to mitigating terrorism risk to citizens in Europe and North America.