Macroeconomic Forecasting with Agent-Based Models: Prediction and Simulation of the Impact of Public Policies on SMEs

Abstract

The aim of this chapter is to show and discuss an integrated scheme of the MOSIPS project. This project, using an agent-based model methodology, focuses on simulating and evaluating policies for small and medium enterprises within a local environment. Its purpose is to conduct experiments on the implementation of policies according to different socio-economic scenarios. The results of these experiments allow stakeholders and citizens to know how the measures proposed by governments affect them and enable them to interact in the decision-making process. This perspective allows the analysis and implementation of the actions, interactions, and results between agents. At the micro-level, the model provides two main kinds of agents: individuals and firms, and some other entities: the public sector, the financial system, and the external sector. It also determines rules for actions and interactions. Simulations of variables and parameters lead to the analysis of the evolution and the forecast of the system at the macroeconomic level. The trajectories of the agents offer a dynamic standpoint that overcomes the standard equilibrium models.