Skip to main content

Machine Learning-Based Approaches for Location Based Dengue Prediction: Review

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Fourth International Congress on Information and Communication Technology

Abstract

Dengue is a fast-spreading viral disease which has no preventive medicine. Due to this infectious disease, almost half of the global population is at risk. Consequently, much research has been conducted using various medical as well as computational methods in order to prevent this menace. The main aim of this paper is to review machine learning approaches to this problem and to identify the most suitable method to predict the spread of this disease for distinctive geographical areas of countries like Sri Lanka. We consider environmental factors such as climate and vegetation data, dengue case data along with the population of a specific geographic area for the disease outbreak predictions. Specifically, this paper consists of the following sections: (i) A brief description of the disease and the factors affecting the spread; (ii) review the pattern of the environmental and population factors affecting the spread; (iii) a review and comparison of machine learning algorithms for prediction of the spread of the disease (SVM, decision tree, neural network, and random forest).

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. WHO | Dengue (WHO, 2018)

    Google Scholar 

  2. I.A. Rather, H.A. Parray, J.B. Lone, W.K. Paek, J. Lim, V.K. Bajpai, Y.-H. Park, Prevention and control strategies to counter dengue virus infection. Front. Cell. Infect. Microbiol. 7, 336 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. L.B. Carrington, C.P. Simmons, Human to mosquito transmission of dengue viruses. Front. Immunol. 5, 290 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Defeating dengue with GM mosquitoes [Online], University of Oxford, (2016). Available: http://www.ox.ac.uk/research/research-impact/defeating-dengue-gm-mosquitoes. Accessed 29 Oct 2018

  5. M.C. Castro, M.E. Wilson, D.E. Bloom, Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University. Working Paper Series. Disease and economic burdens of dengue Series. Dengue 1, Disease and economic burdens of dengue (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  6. T. Pang, T.K. Mak, D.J. Gubler, Prevention and control of dengue-the light at the end of the tunnel. Lancet. Infect. Dis. 17(3), e79–e87 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. S.H.W. Tyler, M. Sharp, J. Perez-Padilla, Dengue—Chapter 3—2018 Yellow Book| Travelers’ Health| CDC [Online] (2018). Available: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/yellowbook/2018/infectious-diseases-related-to-travel/dengue. Accessed 18 Dec 2018

  8. GlobalData Healthcare, Dengue in Europe: is there an outbreak threat in new areas? (2018) [Online]. Available https://www.hospitalmanagement.net/comment/dengue-in-europe/. Accessed 18 Dec 2018

  9. G.N. Malavige, S. Fernando, D.J. Fernando, S.L. Seneviratne, Dengue viral infections. Postgrad. Med. J. 80(948), 588–601 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. M.C. Weerasinghe, D.S. Sinha, It’s time to review strategies for dengue in Sri Lanka. BMJ (2017). [Online]. Available https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2017/08/06/time-to-review-strategies-for-dengue-in-sri-lanka/. Accessed 30 Oct 2018

  11. N.L. Achee, F. Gould, T.A. Perkins, R.C. Reiner, A.C. Morrison, S.A. Ritchie, D.J. Gubler, R. Teyssou, T.W. Scott, A critical assessment of vector control for dengue prevention. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 9(5), e0003655 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. P. Sirisena, F. Noordeen, H. Kurukulasuriya, T.A. Romesh, L. Fernando, Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks. PLoS One 12(1), e0166806 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. D.N. Pham, S. Nellis, A.A. Sadanand, A. Jamil, J.J. Khoo, A literature review of methods for dengue outbreak prediction, in eKNOW 2016 : The Eighth International Conference on Information, Process, and Knowledge Management no. c (2016), pp. 7–13

    Google Scholar 

  14. S. Díaz-Castro, M. Moreno-Legorreta, A. Ortega-Rubio, V. Serrano-Pinto, Relation between dengue and climate trends in the Northwest of Mexico. Trop. Biomed. 34(1), 157–165 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  15. H. Lee, J.E. Kim, S. Lee, C.H. Lee, Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea. PLoS ONE 13(6), e0199205 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Y.-H. Lai, The climatic factors affecting dengue fever outbreaks in southern Taiwan: an application of symbolic data analysis. Biomed. Eng. Online 17(S2), 148 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. A. Stanforth, M.J. Moreno-Madriñán, J. Ashby, N. El-Sheimy, Z. Lari, A. Moussa, D.R. Mishra, D.G. Goodin, X. Li, P.S. Thenkabail, Remote sensing exploratory analysis of dengue fever niche variables within the río magdalena watershed (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  18. R.V. Araujo, M.R. Albertini, A.L. Costa-da-Silva, L. Suesdek, N.C.S. Franceschi, N.M. Bastos, G. Katz, V.A. Cardoso, B.C. Castro, M.L. Capurro, V.L.A.C. Allegro, São Paulo urban heat islands have a higher incidence of dengue than other urban areas. Brazilian J. Infect. Dis. 19(2), 146–155 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. C.J. Struchiner, J. Rocklöv, A. Wilder-Smith, E. Massad, Increasing dengue incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population growth, climate and mobility. PLoS ONE 10(8), e0136286 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. A. Wilder-Smith, D.J. Gubler, S.C. Weaver, T.P. Monath, D.L. Heymann, T.W. Scott, Epidemic arboviral diseases: priorities for research and public health. Lancet. Infect. Dis. 17(3), e101–e106 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. J.F. Obenauer, T. Andrew Joyner, J.B. Harris, The importance of human population characteristics in modeling Aedes aegypti distributions and assessing risk of mosquito-borne infectious diseases. Trop. Med. Health 45, 38 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. P. Guo, T. Liu, Q. Zhang, L. Wang, J. Xiao, Q. Zhang, G. Luo, Z. Li, J. He, Y. Zhang, W. Ma, Developing a dengue forecast model using machine learning: A case study in China. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 11(10), e0005973 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. V.K. Damodar Reddy Edla, P. Lingras, Advances in Machine Learning and Data Science, vol. 705 (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Z. Obermeyer, E.J. Emanuel, Fast-track zika vaccine development. N. Engl. J. Med. 375 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  25. S.F. Weng, J. Reps, J. Kai, J.M. Garibaldi, N. Qureshi, Can machine-learning improve cardiovascular risk prediction using routine clinical data? PLoS ONE 12(4), e0174944 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. P.C. Austin, J.V. Tu, J.E. Ho, D. Levy, D.S. Lee, Using methods from the data-mining and machine-learning literature for disease classification and prediction: A case study examining classification of heart failure subtypes. J. Clin. Epidemiol. 66(4), 398–407 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. K. Kourou, T.P. Exarchos, K.P. Exarchos, M.V. Karamouzis, D.I. Fotiadis, Machine learning applications in cancer prognosis and prediction. Comput. Struct. Biotechnol. J. 13, 8–17 (2015)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. A.A. Annakutty, A.C. Aponso, Review of brain imaging techniques, feature extraction and classification algorithms to identify alzheimer’s disease. Int. J. Pharma Med. Biol. Sci. 5(3), 178–183 (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  29. A. Laureano-Rosario, A. Duncan, P. Mendez-Lazaro, J. Garcia-Rejon, S. Gomez-Carro, J. Farfan-Ale, D. Savic, F. Muller-Karger, Application of artificial neural networks for dengue fever outbreak predictions in the northwest coast of Yucatan, Mexico and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Trop. Med. Infect. Dis. 3(1), 5 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. V. Ughelli, Y. Lisnichuk, J. Paciello, J. Pane, Prediction of dengue cases in paraguay using artificial neural networks, in 3rd International Conference on Health Informatics Medical Systems (2017), pp. 130–136

    Google Scholar 

  31. W. Caicedo-Torres, D. Montes-Grajales, W. Miranda-Castro, M. Fennix-Agudelo, N. Agudelo-Herrera, Kernel-based machine learning models for the prediction of dengue and chikungunya morbidity in Colombia. Commun. Comput. Inf. Sci. 735, 472–484 (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  32. N. Méndez, M. Oviedo-Pastrana, S. Mattar, I. Caicedo-Castro, G. Arrieta, Zika virus disease, microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome in Colombia: Epidemiological situation during 21 months of the Zika virus outbreak, 2015–2017 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  33. B. Jongmuenwai, S. Lowanichchai, S. Jabjone, Prediction Model of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak using Artificial Neural Networks in Northeast of Thailand (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  34. D. Rahmawati, Y.P. Huang, Using C-support vector classification to forecast dengue fever epidemics in Taiwan, in 2016 IEEE International Conference on System Science and Engineering (ICSSE, 2016)

    Google Scholar 

  35. G. Zhu, J. Hunter, Y. Jiang, Improved Prediction of Dengue Outbreak Using the Delay Permutation Entropy, in Proceedings on 2016 IEEE International Conference Internet Things (iThings); IEEE Green Computing and Communications (GreenCom); IEEE Cyber, Physical and Social Computing CPSCom; IEEE Smart Data Smart Data (2016), pp. 828–832

    Google Scholar 

  36. N.K.K. Rao, G.P.S. Varma, D. Rao, P. Cse, Classification rules using decision tree for dengue disease. Int. J. Res. Comput. Commun. Technol. 3(3), 2278–5841 (2014)

    Google Scholar 

  37. R. Babu, Decision tree model for dengue data analysis, Int. J. Res. Sci. Comput. Eng. 3(1) (2017)

    Google Scholar 

  38. A.S. Fathima, Analysis of significant factors for dengue infection prognosis using the random forest classifier. Int. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl. 6(2), 240–245 (2015)

    Google Scholar 

  39. T.M. Carvajal, K.M. Viacrusis, L.F.T. Hernandez, H.T. Ho, D.M. Amalin, K. Watanabe, Machine learning methods reveal the temporal pattern of dengue incidence using meteorological factors in metropolitan Manila, Philippines. BMC Infect. Dis. 18(1), 183 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. N. Rajathi, S. Kanagaraj, R. Brahmanambika, K. Manjubarkavi, Early detection of dengue using machine learning algorithms

    Google Scholar 

  41. A. Macrae, C. Schiano De Colella, E. Sebastian, CS229 project: classification of dengue fever outcomes from early transcriptional patterns

    Google Scholar 

  42. I. Jenhani, N. Ben Amor, Z. Elouedi, Decision trees as possibilistic classifiers. Int. J. Approx. Reason. 48(3), 784–807 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. R. Gholami, N. Fakhari, Support vector machine: principles, parameters, and applications, in Handbook of Neural Computation (Elsevier, 2017), pp. 515–535

    Google Scholar 

  44. C. Petri, Decision Trees (2010)

    Google Scholar 

  45. L. Tanner, M. Schreiber, J.G.H. Low, A. Ong, T. Tolfvenstam, Y.L. Lai, L.C. Ng, Y.S. Leo, L. Thi Puong, S.G. Vasudevan, C.P. Simmons, M.L. Hibberd, E.E. Ooi, Decision tree algorithms predict the diagnosis and outcome of dengue fever in the early phase of illness. PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis. 2(3), e196 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. L. Breiman, Machine Learning (Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 2001)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Chamalka Seneviratne Kalansuriya .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2020 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Kalansuriya, C.S., Aponso, A.C., Basukoski, A. (2020). Machine Learning-Based Approaches for Location Based Dengue Prediction: Review. In: Yang, XS., Sherratt, S., Dey, N., Joshi, A. (eds) Fourth International Congress on Information and Communication Technology. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1041. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0637-6_29

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0637-6_29

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-15-0636-9

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-15-0637-6

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics