Transition to Electric and Autonomous Vehicles in China

Abstract

China is a pioneer in electric vehicles (EV) and autonomous vehicles (AV) technology transition. In the sustainable systems’ development, transport sector shows considerable potential to reduce greenhouse gases. We present our investigation in the status of the transition to EVs and AV technology. We estimate potential for the full transitions in China, under different policy scenarios, using a bottom-up national transport model and an electricity model based on publicly available data. The study concludes that under the current policy scenario, country can achieve emission reduction targets by 2035 through the new 14th Five-Year Plan. However, in the subsequent period, the goal of achieving net zero emissions by 2060, may not be fully achieved due to bottlenecks in electric vehicle technology, particularly in the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, and treatment of battery systems and vehicles at the end-of-life cycle. Country will need to set a more aggressive policy for clean electricity production around 2035, while looking to electrification, or hydrogen technology breakthroughs, and the use of green electrical energy. Around 2030, we estimate that the AV technology introduction will be at level 3, so that the impact of autonomous vehicles on the green transport will be minimal. According to our estimations, after 2035, autonomous driving technology will be fully introduced and will be able to offer advantages for the sustainable transport. To reach Chinese government’s goal of net zero emissions, by 2060, the potential of cleaner electricity production and electric-hydrogen energy technologies should be fully utilised.