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The Sandpile Model of Japanese Empire Dynamics

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Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing (ChineseCSCW 2022)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 1682))

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Abstract

Global empires take on the same pattern of life cycles (rises and falls). As a typical history of empires, Japan has an obvious life cycle pattern within 2246 years. Natural and human societies (empires) are complex systems, which is why we witness cross-system patterns. Individuals’ local (micro-level) interactions determine or shape a macro-level life cycle pattern. Individuals’ local (micro-level) interactions determine or shape a macro-level life cycle pattern. When a critical threshold is reached, any local changes can lead to phase transitions of systems. To investigate this pattern, internal (microscopic) mechanisms should be applied. Self-organized criticality and complexity theory are applied to reveal similar mechanisms. Based on related theories, we build our agent-based model. Deeming Japanese empires as the target function, we traverse parameters to obtain the highest matching degree (optimal solution). For 13 Japanese empires, the best and multiple simulations can perfectly match real empires in history. Besides, we infer counterfactual, for 11, 12, 14 & 15 empires, and achieve a perfect matching. So, our model’s validity, robustness, and generality can be confirmed. It implies that natural and human systems (Japanese Empires) share similar mechanisms.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Central South University, Changsha, China

    Peng Lu, Zhuo Zhang & Mengdi Li

  2. Department of Artificial Intelligence, Central South University, Changsha, China

    Peng Lu, Zhuo Zhang & Mengdi Li

Authors
  1. Peng Lu
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  2. Zhuo Zhang
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  3. Mengdi Li
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mengdi Li .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Shandong University, Jinan, China

    Yuqing Sun

  2. Fudan University, Shanghai, China

    Tun Lu

  3. Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan, China

    Yinzhang Guo

  4. Shanxi Datong University, Datong, China

    Xiaoxia Song

  5. Tongji University, Shanghai, China

    Hongfei Fan

  6. Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou, China

    Dongning Liu

  7. University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, China

    Liping Gao

  8. Tongji University, Shanghai, China

    Bowen Du

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© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

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Lu, P., Zhang, Z., Li, M. (2023). The Sandpile Model of Japanese Empire Dynamics. In: Sun, Y., et al. Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing. ChineseCSCW 2022. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 1682. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-2385-4_39

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-2385-4_39

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  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-99-2384-7

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-99-2385-4

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

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