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Accuracy of precipitation forecasts: finding the right threshold for what is considered rain

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Abstract

Accurately predicting the rain is a fundamental component of weather forecasting. However, looking at the data provided for the 2018 ASA Data Expo Challenge, forecasts were consistently underpredicting the proportion of rainy days. The default threshold in inches of rain for what is considered a rainy day is 0.01 inches or more as defined by the National Weather Service. We found that adjusting the threshold for each city dramatically increases probability of precipitation forecast accuracies, and that generally across the United States a threshold of 0.07 inches is better than 0.01.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the organizers of the 2018 Joint Statistical Meetings, and the members of the ASA section on Statistical Graphics and the section on Statistical Computing for the opportunity to create and share our work.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics and Biostatistics, California State University, East Bay, 25800 Carlos Bee Boulevard, Hayward, CA, 94542, USA

    Darren Keeley & Eric A. Suess

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  1. Darren Keeley
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  2. Eric A. Suess
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Correspondence to Darren Keeley.

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Keeley, D., Suess, E.A. Accuracy of precipitation forecasts: finding the right threshold for what is considered rain. Comput Stat 38, 1123–1134 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-023-01337-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00180-023-01337-5

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