Abstract
We study first-price auctions in which the number of bidders is the seller’s private information, and investigate the use of a reserve price to signal this private information. We use the D1 criterion to refine the set of equilibria and characterize a symmetric separating equilibrium outcome, where the reserve price increases with the number of bidders. The key driving force is a certain form of single-crossing property. With more bidders, the seller can afford a high reserve price that discourages competition in the auction, for the winning bid is more likely to be higher.
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Notes
In procurement auctions, a contract is not necessarily awarded to a bidder placing the lowest bid because the government may take into consideration the other factors such as production quality and delivery time. Moreover, the firm with the lowest bid can lose the auction if the government considers the winning bid to be too low (Decarolis 2018). Thus, procurement auctions would be considered as a multi-dimensional auction (Che 1993) rather than a first-price auction in its pure form. However, a first-price auction is a tractable model for studying procurement auctions and then it frequently appears in the literature on procurement auctions (see, for example, De Silva et al. 2008; Li and Zheng 2009).
Examples include the “mowing highway right-of-way” project managed by Texas Department of Transportation (Li and Zheng 2009). In particular, in order to participate procurement auctions, each bidder must be on the government’s “qualified bidders” list. Therefore, the government knows the number of potential bidders. In each auction, the government announces a reserve price as well as the other information about the project. Then, the qualified bidders choose bids. The bidder’s decision not to enter the auction can be interpreted as a bid that does not reach the reserve price. Li and Zheng (2009) argue that the bidders do not know the actual number of competitors when bidding because they employ a mixed strategy for the entry decision.
Some bidders in online auctions are unaware of the proxy bidding system, which is the key device to make online auctions into (modified) second-price auctions. Such a bidder falsely understands that he pays the money amount he puts, instead of the second-highest bid plus the minimum increment, when winning the auction (Roth and Ockenfels 2002, p. 1100). In other words, online auctions look like first-price auctions to such a bidder. The presence of such a bidder may be a reason that sellers on online auctions could profitably manipulate a bidder’s belief on the intensity of bidding competition. Hence, signaling matters.
In online auctions (e.g., Yahoo auctions), sellers sometimes post the following comment on their sales: “So many people add my auction to the ‘watching list.’ Thanks everyone for your keen interests in my auction!” Probably, such sellers intend to make potential bidders to believe that there are plenty of competitors. Of course, however, such a comment is just a cheap talk. The bidders have no reason to believe it in literally.
A buyout price, which is frequently used in online auctions, may be another candidate of signaling methods. However, a seller cannot use a buyout price in order to credibly reveal her private information about the number of bidders. Suppose that there exists a separating equilibrium in which a buyout price increases with the number of bidders. Then, a seller raises a buyout price so that bidders falsely understand the competitiveness and a bidding competition intensifies. The underlying reason is that the seller incurs no cost for increasing a buyout price: an increase of a buyout price does not yield a decline in a probability of successful sales. This intuition is the same as the one in Tsuchihashi (2019) who studies the buyout price signaling. Tsuchihashi shows that a seller cannot credibly reveal the private information which is relevant to the values of the object to the bidders and the seller.
The author thanks the anonymous referee to point this.
McAfee and McMillan (1987) use this argument to justify uncertain bidders in English auctions.
Jullien and Mariotti (2009) use a similar model to CRY07 and characterize the unique separating equilibrium. However, there is a difference of an information structure between the two research, and further, the Jullien and Mariotti’s analyses are restricted to a case of two bidders.
The single-crossing property behind reserve price signaling discourages “lower-type” seller from mimicking higher types. Although there are alternative mechanisms serving for this purpose (e.g., a high-type seller is required to burn money conditional on a successful sale), using a reserve price is the most costless from a viewpoint of a seller. For more detail, see Zhao (2018), who shows the advantage of reserve price signaling over alternatives.
Alternatively, the seller may have only a piece of information about the number of bidders. For example, sellers in online auctions may not know the exact number of the bidders even when reauctioning items after the items remain unsold, because the bidder who watches the current auction may be no longer active or a new buyer may appear during the auction period. For such a situation, we may employ an alternative model in which the seller observes a signal which is relevant to the number of bidders after it realizes. The signal the seller receives might be soft information that cannot be easily transmitted.
A bidder’s general (probabilistic) belief can be a distribution on \(\{ 1, \ldots , N \}\) even though only the \({\hat{n}}\)-type belief is relevant for the separating equilibrium we focus on. The current setup on a bidder’s belief is not restrictive, however, in a sense that the separating equilibrium outcome described in Proposition 1 survives the D1 criterion. Later, we introduce a general belief and derive an optimal bidding strategy under the general belief when considering the D1 criterion test. See Lemma 1 in Sect. 3.
This result is straightforward from standard textbooks of auction theory. For the derivation, see Krishna (2010, p. 21).
For example, distribution \(F(x)=x^k\) with support [0, 1] can fail to satisfy the lower-bound condition if k is close to 0 so that \(k \times (n-{\hat{n}}+1) \in (-1,1)\) holds. However, such a situation is avoidable as long as \(k \ge 1\), because \(n-{\hat{n}}+1\) is an integer.
It follows that a type n seller’s expected payoff increases with r because \(r_{n-1} \le r^*=r(n-1,n-1)<r(n-1,n)\) holds.
The author thanks the anonymous referee for pointing this difference.
They show, however, that the seller prefers to conceal this information when facing risk-averse bidders. Levin and Ozdenoren (2004) introduce ambiguity-averse bidders into the model and find a similar result to those of McAfee and McMillan (1987) and Matthews (1987). In Levin and Ozdenoren’s (2004) model, each bidder is assumed to maximize his maxmin expected utility, as defined by Gilboa and Schmeidler (1989).
The seller’s choice of either a secret reserve price or reserve price signaling can transmit her private information to the bidders.
References
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I am truly indebted to the attendees of the Sapporo Workshop on Industrial Economics at Sapporo Gakuin University, the MicroLab at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, and the JEI2018 at Universitat de Barcelona for their helpful comments and suggestions and invaluable guidance. Any remaining errors are, of course, my own responsibility.
Appendices
Appendix 1
In this appendix section, first, we show four lemmas in order to prove Proposition 1.
Lemma 2
Let \(r({\hat{n}},n)\) be a reserve price that satisfies \(J(r({\hat{n}},n),{\hat{n}},n)=0\) given \({\hat{n}}\) and n. If Assumption 1holds, then we obtain
Proof
Since \(\partial U(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial r = -f_n(r)J(r,{\hat{n}},n)\) and \(J(r({\hat{n}},n),{\hat{n}},n)=0\), \(\partial U(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial r=0\) holds at \(r=r({\hat{n}},n)\). By Assumption 1, \(J(r,{\hat{n}},n) \gtreqless 0\) holds if and only if the reserve price satisfies \(r \gtreqless r({\hat{n}},n)\). \(\square\)
Lemma 3
The optimal reserve price given \({\hat{n}}\) and n decreases in \({\hat{n}}\) and increases in n:
The inequality is strict for \({\hat{n}} \not = n+1\).
Proof
The implicit function theorem yields
Since \(\partial J(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial r>0\) holds by Assumption 1, it suffices to prove that \(\partial J(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial {\hat{n}} \ge 0\). First, we suppose that \({\hat{n}} \not = n+1\). By differentiating \(J(r,{\hat{n}},n)\) with respect to \({\hat{n}}\), we obtain
For any \({\hat{n}} \not = n+1\), \(\log {F(r)^{ n-{\hat{n}}+1}}+1-F(r)^{n-{\hat{n}}+1}<0\) holds whenever the reserve price satisfies \(r<\bar{x}\). Hence, \(\partial J(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial {\hat{n}}>0\) holds. Moreover, since \(\partial J(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial n=- \partial J(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial {\hat{n}}\) holds, we obtain
Second, we suppose that \({\hat{n}}=n+1\). Since \(\partial J(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial r=0\) holds, it follows that \(\partial r({\hat{n}},n)/\partial {\hat{n}}=\partial r({\hat{n}},n)/\partial n=0\).\(\square\)
Lemma 4
The slope of the indifference curve given by Eq. (2) decreases in n. That is,
Proof
The numerator of the last line of Eq. (2) decreases in n, as shown in the proof of Lemma 3, and the denominator increases with n because \(F_{n-1}(x)/ F_{n-1}(r)=(F(x)/F(r))^{n-1}\) and \(F(x)/F(r)>1\) hold whenever \(x>r\).\(\square\)
Lemma 5
For any symmetric separating PBE, a type 1 seller chooses \(r^*\) to satisfy \(J(r^*,n,n)=0\).
Proof
Suppose that \(r_1 \not = r^*\) in a separating PBE. If \({\hat{n}}(r^*)=1\), then a type 1 seller benefits from choosing \(r^*\) since \(U(r_1,1,1)<U(r^*,1,1)=\max _{r}U(r,1,1)\) holds. If \({\hat{n}}(r^*)>1\), then a type 1 seller again benefits from choosing \(r^*\) since \(U(r_1,1,1)<U(r^*,1,1)<U(r^*,{\hat{n}}(r^*),1)\) holds. The last inequality holds because, for any r and n,
The inequality follows
\(\square\)
1.1 Proof of Proposition 1
Proof
Following the arguments of Riley (1979) and Cai et al. (2007), we see that, if there exists a unique separating equilibrium, then a schedule of reserve prices \((r_n)^N_{n=1}\) should be given by (i) \(r_1=r^*\) that satisfies \(J(r^*,n,n)=0\) and (ii) \(r_n\) that satisfies \(U(r_n,n,n)=U(r_{n+1},n+1,n)\) for \(1\le n<N\). Note that \(r_{n+1}>r_n\) for \(1 \le n <N\).
In what follows, given the belief described in Proposition 1, we show that a type n seller has no profitable deviation. We separately consider three forms of deviations.
First, suppose that a type n seller chooses \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\). Bidders form a belief n by observing this reserve price. Since \(r_n \ge r^*\) and U(r, n, n) decreases in r for \(r>r^*\) by Lemma 2, \(U(r_n,n,n)>U(r,n,n)\) holds for any \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\). Therefore, a type n seller cannot benefit from choosing \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\).
Second, suppose that a type n seller chooses \(r \in [r_{n'},r_{n'+1})\) with \(r_{n'+1}<r_n\). Bidders form a belief \(n' \le n-1\) by observing this reserve price. Since \(\partial U(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial {\hat{n}} >0\) holds, it may be that \(U(r_n,n,n) > \max _{r} U(r,n',n)\) holds. In this case, a type n seller cannot profitably deviate by choosing \(r \in [r_{n'},r_{n'+1})\).
Alternatively, we consider the case in which there exists an \(r'\) that satisfies \(U(r',n',n)=U(r_n,n,n)\). If two reserve prices satisfy this condition, we let \(r'\) be the higher of the two reserve prices. Thus, \(r' \ge r(n',n)\). The single-crossing condition (Lemma 4) implies that \(r_{n'}>r'\). Thus, for any \(r \in [r_{n'},r_{n'+1})\), we obtain
The inequality holds by Lemma 2 since \(U(r,n',n)\) decreases in r for \(r>r(n',n)\), and the above discussion yields \(r_{n'}>r(n',n)\).
Moreover, if there existed an \(r'<r^*\) that satisfied \(U(r',1,n)=U(r_n,n,n)\), then a type n seller could benefit from choosing \(r<r'\). However, \(r' \ge r(1,n)>r_1=r^*\) holds by Lemma 2. Thus, we can exclude a deviation in which a type n seller chooses \(r \in [\underline{x},r_1]\). Therefore, a type n seller cannot benefit from choosing \(r<r_n\).
Finally, suppose that a type n seller chooses \(r \in [r_{n'},r_{n'+1})\) with \(r_{n'} \ge r_{n+1}\). The proof proceeds in two steps. First, we suppose that \(n'=n+1\). That is, bidders form the belief \(n+1\). A type n seller cannot benefit from choosing \(r_{n+1}\) by construction. Moreover, for any \(r \in (r_{n+1},r_{n+2})\), we obtain
The inequality holds by Lemma 2 since \(U(r,n+1,n)\) decreases in r for \(r>r(n+1,n)\), and \(r_{n+1}>r(n+1,n)\) holds.
Next, we suppose that \(n'>n+1\). Let \(r'\) be a reserve price that satisfies \(U(r',n',n)=U(r_n,n,n)\). If two reserve prices satisfy this condition, we let \(r'\) be the higher of the two reserve prices. Thus, \(r'>r_n\). Since \(\partial r({\hat{n}},n)/\partial {\hat{n}} <0\) by Lemma 3, we obtain \(r_n \ge r_1=r(n,n)>r(n',n)\). The first inequality holds by construction and is strict for \(n>1\). Moreover, \(r_{n'}>r'\) by Lemma 4. Thus, for any \(r \in [r_{n'},r_{n'+1})\), we obtain
The inequality holds by Lemma 2 since \(U(r,n',n)\) decreases in r for \(r>r(n',n)\), and the above discussion yields \(r_{n'}>r(n',n)\). Therefore, a type n seller cannot benefit from choosing \(r \ge r_{n+1}\).
The belief described in the proposition is consistent with the seller’s strategy. This completes the proof.\(\square\)
Appendix 2
Lemma 6
Let \(\sigma (x)=f(x)/F(x)\) denote the reverse hazard rate. Eq. (1) increases with x (i.e., Assumption 1holds) if, for any x, \({\hat{n}}\), and n, \(\sigma (x)\) satisfies
Proof
For convenience, we let \(z=n-{\hat{n}}+1\). First, suppose \(z=0\). Then, we obtain
Therefore, \(\partial J/\partial x>0\) holds if \(\sigma '(x)<0\).
Second, suppose \(z \not = 0\). We obtain
Since \((F(x)^{-z}-1)/z>0\), \(\partial J/\partial x>0\) holds if
Note that the right-hand side is negative.\(\square\)
1.1 Proof of Lemma 1
Proof
Suppose that all bidders have the interim belief of \(\rho =(\rho _1,\ldots , \rho _N)\) by observing r. We fix a bidder with valuation x. Suppose that all bidders other than this bidder follow \(\bar{b}(x) \equiv b(x,r,\rho )\). This bidder chooses a bid p to maximize the expected payoff of
Note that he takes his interim belief \(\rho _n\) into consideration when computing the expected payoff. The first-order condition is given by
Since \(p=\bar{b}(x)\) must hold in a symmetric equilibrium, we obtain
By using \(\bar{b}(r)=r\), we obtain
\(\square\)
1.2 Proof of Proposition 2
Proof
We show that the equilibrium outcome described in Proposition 1 survives the D1 criterion. Given \(\rho\), we consider \({\hat{n}}\) that satisfies \(b(x,r,{\hat{n}})=b(x,r,\rho )\). Note that such an \({\hat{n}}\) may not be an integer. There exists the unique \({\hat{n}} \in [1,N]\) because
-
every \(\rho\) generates the unique \(b(x,r,\rho )\),
-
\(b(x,r,\rho )\) is the weighted average of \(b(x,r,{\hat{n}})\) for \({\hat{n}}=1,\ldots ,N\), and
-
\(b(x,r,{\hat{n}})\) increases with \({\hat{n}}\).
Thus, we can replace the set of a bidder’s best responses with the set of beliefs when considering the D1 criterion.
We define the following sets. For a reserve price r,
Note that each set is defined as a subset of [1, N] instead of \(\{ 1,\ldots ,N \}\) and that \(N^0_n(r)\) is a singleton. Moreover, \(N^0_n(r)=\inf {N_n(r)}\) holds since \(U(r,{\hat{n}},n)\) is a continuous and increasing function of \({\hat{n}}\).
Suppose that a type n seller can benefit from choosing r if a bidder’s belief is \(n'\). Let \({\hat{n}}\) be the minimum of such \(n'\)s. Note that the type n seller’s payoff is greater for \(n>{\hat{n}}\) since \(b(x,r,{\hat{n}})\) and hence \(U(r,{\hat{n}},n)\) increase with \({\hat{n}}\). Then, the D1 criterion implies that a bidder assigns a probability of one to the seller type for which the least number is the lowest. Therefore, we can replace Definition 3 with the following.
Definition 4
An equilibrium outcome survives the D1 criterion if and only if for every off-the-equilibrium reserve price r, the equilibrium can be supported with belief \(\rho _{n'}=0\) whenever, for \(N_n(r)\not = \emptyset\),
In what follows, we show that the equilibrium outcome described in Proposition 1 passes the test given by Definition 4. We prove that \(\rho _{n'}=0\) holds for any \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\) and \(n' \not = n\) (i.e., \({\hat{n}}(r)=n\) holds). We define \(U^{-1}({\tilde{U}}|r,n)={\hat{n}}\) for \({\tilde{U}}=U(r,{\hat{n}},n)\). Note that \(U^{-1}(\cdot | r,n)\) is an increasing function of \({\hat{n}}\) for any \(r \ge r^*\) and n since \(U(r,{\hat{n}},n)\) increases with \({\hat{n}}\).
First, suppose that \(n' \le n-1\). Since the profile constitutes an equilibrium, \(U^*_{n'}=U(r_{n'},n',n') \ge U(r_n,n,n')\) holds. The inequality is strict for \(n'<n-1\). Thus, we obtain \(U^{-1}(U^*_{n'}|r_n,n') \ge n = U^{-1}(U^*_n|r_n,n)\). Note that \(N^0_{n'}(r_n)=U^{-1}(U^*_{n'}|r_n,n')\) and \(N^0_n(r_n)=n\).
Since \(\partial U(r,{\hat{n}},n)/\partial r<0\) holds for \(r>r({\hat{n}},n)\), \(U^{-1}({\tilde{U}}|r,n)\) increases with r. By Lemma 3, \(r_n \ge r(n,n)>r(n,n')\) holds for \(n'<n\). Therefore, the single-crossing condition implies that \(U^{-1}(U^*_{n'}|r,n')>U^{-1}(U^*_n|r,n)\) for \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\). This inequality implies that \(\inf {N_n(r)}<N^0_{n'}(r)\) for \(n' \le n-1\). Therefore, \(\rho _{n'}=0\) should hold for \(n' \le n-1\).
Second, suppose that \(n' \ge n+1\). We prove that \(\rho _{n'}=0\) by mathematical induction. Thus, for the first step, suppose that \(n'=n+1\). Since \(U^*_n=U(r_{n+1},n+1,n)\) and \(U^*_{n+1}=U(r_{n+1},n+1,n+1)\) hold in equilibrium, we obtain \(U^{-1}(U^*_n|r_{n+1},n)=U^{-1}(U^*_{n+1}|r_{n+1},n+1)=n+1\). Since \(r_{n+1}>r_n \ge r^*\) implies that \(\partial U(r,n,n)/\partial r<0\) and \(\partial U(r,n+1,n+1)/\partial r<0\) hold for \(r>r_n\), we obtain \(\partial U^{-1}(U^*_n|r,n)/\partial r>0\) and \(\partial U^{-1}(U^*_{n+1}|r,n)/\partial r>0\) for \(r>r_n\). Moreover, the single-crossing condition implies that \(\partial ^2 U^{-1}/\partial r \partial n<0\). Thus, for \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\), we obtain \(U^{-1}(U^*_n|r,n)<U^{-1}(U^*_{n+1}|r,n+1)<n+1\).
Next, we suppose that, for \(n'=n+k\), \(U^{-1}(U^*_n|r,n)<U^{-1}(U^*_{n+k}|r,n+k)\) holds for \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\). Since a similar discussion implies that \(U^{-1}(U^*_n|r_{n+k},n+k)=U^{-1}(U^*_{n+k+1}|r_{n+k+1},n+k+1)=n+k+1\) holds, we obtain \(U^{-1}(U^*_{n+k}|r,n+k)<U^{-1}(U^*_{n+k+1}|r,n+k+1)<n+k+1\) for \(r<r_{n+k+1}\). Since \(r_{n+1}<r_{n+k+1}\), we obtain \(U^{-1}(U^*_{n}|r,n)<U^{-1}(U^*_{n+k+1}|r,n+k+1)\) for \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\). Consequently, by mathematical induction, we obtain \(U^{-1}(U^*_n|r,n)<U^{-1}(U^*_{n'}|r,n)\) for \(r \in (r_n,r_{n+1})\). This inequality implies that \(\inf {N_n(r)}<N^0_{n'}(r)\) for \(n' \ge n+1\). Therefore, \(\rho _{n'}=0\) should hold for \(n' \ge n-1\). \(\square\)
1.3 Proof of the payoff equivalence for secret and public reserve prices
Proof
First, we rewrite the weight function as follows.
The third equality from the top follows \(n g_n=\rho ^0_n \sum ^{N}_{m=1}m g_m\). Using this relation, we obtain
\(\square\)
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Tsuchihashi, T. Reserve price signaling in first-price auctions with an uncertain number of bidders. Int J Game Theory 49, 1081–1103 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00182-020-00731-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00182-020-00731-3