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Das Kreditrating von Verbrauchern und Unternehmen und die Subprime-Krise in den USA mit Lehren für Deutschland

  • HAUPTBEITRAG
  • SUBPRIME-KRISE
  • Published:
Informatik-Spektrum Aims and scope

Zusammenfassung

Bei der Subprime-Hypothekenkrise in den USA spielten sowohl Kreditauskunfteien und deren Kredit-Scores als auch Ratingagenturen eine wichtige Rolle. Zum einen war der Kredit-Score als wichtigster und oft auch einziger Maßstab für die Kreditwürdigkeit von Verbrauchern nicht geeignet, Kreditausfallrisiken zuverlässig zu prognostizieren. Wir identifizieren vier Problemfelder, die für die Schwächung des FICO®-Score und den damit verbundenen Qualitätsverlust bei der Risikoeinschätzung von Verbraucherkrediten verantwortlich sind: Reaktivität bzw. ,,gaming the system“, das Problem nicht berücksichtigter Variablen, korrelierte Kreditausfälle und Endogenität. Zum anderen sahen sich Ratingagenturen, die die verbrieften Hypothekenkreditpools unter Verwendung weniger formalisierter Verfahren bewerteten, mit Problemen der Datenqualität aufgrund schlechter Kredit-Scores konfrontiert. Ihre Prognosefähigkeit war zusätzlich durch korrelierte Kreditausfälle und Interessenkonflikte beeinträchtigt. Abschließend ziehen wir einen kurzen Vergleich zwischen der Situation in Deutschland und in den USA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. University of California, San Diego, CA, USA

    Ákos Róna-Tas

  2. Lehrstuhl Soziologie II, Universität Bamberg, Bamberg, Deutschland

    Stefanie Hiss

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  1. Ákos Róna-Tas
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  2. Stefanie Hiss
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Correspondence to Stefanie Hiss.

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Róna-Tas, Á., Hiss, S. Das Kreditrating von Verbrauchern und Unternehmen und die Subprime-Krise in den USA mit Lehren für Deutschland. Informatik Spektrum 33, 241–261 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00287-009-0360-7

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00287-009-0360-7

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