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Application of uncertain models of sliding zone on stability analysis for reservoir landslide considering the uncertainty of shear strength parameters

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Abstract

The shear strength parameters (SSPs) of slip soil, which control the stability and evolution process of a landslide, exist some uncertainty that should be characterized and considered significantly in the stability analysis. In this paper, a typical reservoir landslide with double-sliding zones is taken as a case study. The statistical characteristics of SSPs in sliding zones are first analyzed using the geostatistical method and the Copula method, especially the spatial variation features, scales of fluctuation, and correlation of SSPs. Then, random variable models for the shallow sliding zone and nonstationary random field models with various vertical scales of fluctuation for the deep sliding zone are established separately. Finally, by employing the nonintrusive stochastic finite element program, the fluid–solid numerical simulation of a real hydrological year is carried out to obtain the landslide displacement, element failure probability, and factor of safety. The results demonstrate that incorporating spatial variability into the SSPs of slip soil led to a fundamental change in landslide stability and deformation. Our study provides some references for the reliability assessment of reservoir landslides considering the uncertainties and the spatial variation characteristics of SSP in the sliding zone.

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Acknowledgements

This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.41977244), the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2017YFC1501301), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42007267). The authors are grateful to the colleagues in our laboratory for their constructive comments and assistance.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences, No. 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan, 430074, People’s Republic of China

    Yang Xue, Fasheng Miao, Yiping Wu, Linwei Li & Jiajia Meng

  2. Research Center of Geohazard Monitoring and Warning in the Three Gorges Reservoir, Wanzhou, Chongqing, 404000, People’s Republic of China

    Yang Xue & Yiping Wu

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  1. Yang Xue
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  2. Fasheng Miao
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  3. Yiping Wu
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  4. Linwei Li
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  5. Jiajia Meng
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Correspondence to Yiping Wu.

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Xue, Y., Miao, F., Wu, Y. et al. Application of uncertain models of sliding zone on stability analysis for reservoir landslide considering the uncertainty of shear strength parameters. Engineering with Computers 38 (Suppl 4), 3057–3076 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-021-01446-z

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