Abstract
In a previous work, we have presented an innovative theoretical model to describe the evolution of the life cycle of a new technology. We have proposed a mathematical approach based on a rate equation, similar to that used to describe quantum level transitions. The model is able to describe the hype curve evolution in many relevant conditions, which can be associated with various external parameters. In this article, we apply this model to describe the evolution of the number of publications in some different research fields that are very current and extremely advanced in terms of social impact. The applications have been chosen in the fields of biomolecular chemistry, genetics and superconducting nanoelectronics.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bisogno T, Hanuš L, De Petrocellis L, Tchilibon S, Ponde DE, Brandi I, Schiano Moriello A, Davis JB, Mechoulam R, Di Marzo V (2001) Molecular targets for cannabidiol and its synthetic analogues: effect on vanilloid VR1 receptors and on the cellular uptake and enzymatic hydrolysis of anandamide. Br J Pharmcol 134:845–852. https://doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjp.0704327
Di Marzo V, Bifulco M, De Petrocellis L (2004) The endocannabinoid system and its therapeutic exploitation. Nat Rev Drug Discov 3:771–784. https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd1495
Fenn J, Rasinko M (2011) Understanding Gartner’s hype cycles, Gartner Inc. (G00214001. http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp)
Franco B, Guioli S, Pragliola A, Incerti B, Bardoni B, Tonlorenzi R, Carrozzo R, Maestrini E, Pieretti M, Taillon-Miller P, Brown CJ, Willard HF, Lawrence C, Persico MG, Camerino G, Ballabio A (1991) A gene deleted in Kallmann’s syndrome shares homology with neural cell adhesion and axonal path-finding molecules. Nature 353:529–536. https://doi.org/10.1038/353529a0
Granata C, Vettoliere A (2016) Nano Superconducting Quantum Interference device: a powerful tool for nanoscale investigations. Phys Rep 614:1–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2015.12.001
Greene WG (2012) Econometric analysis, 7th edn. Pearson, London
Mahajan V, Muller E (1996) Timing, diffusion and substitution of successive generations of technological innovations: the IBM mainframe case. Technol Forecast Soc Change 51:109–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(95)00225-1
Ruggiero B, Corato V, Granata C, Longobardi L, Rombetto S, Silvestrini P (2003) Measurements of the effective dissipation in an rf SQUID system. Phys Rev B 67:132504–1–132504-4. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevB.67.132504
Silvestrini P (1991) Temperature dependence of macroscopic quantum effects in non-stationary conditions. Phys Lett A 152:306–310. https://doi.org/10.1016/0375-9601(91)90112-L
Silvestrini P, Ruggiero B, Esposito A (1996a) The role of quantized energy levels in the macroscopic quantum behaviour of Josephson junctions. Fizika Nizikikh Temperatur 22:252–266
Silvestrini P, Ruggiero B, Ovchinnikov YN, Barone A (1996b) Resonant macroscopic quantum tunneling in small Josephson junctions: effect of temperature. Phys Rev B 53:67–71. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevB.53.67
Silvestrini P, Amato U, Vettoliere A, Silvestrini S, Ruggiero B (2017) Rate equation leading to hype-type evolution curves: a mathematical approach in view of analysing technology development. Technol Forecast Soc Change 116:1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2016.11.013
Tiranti V, Hoertnagel K, Carrozzo R, Galimberti C, Munaro M, Granatiero M, Zelante L, Gasparini P, Marzella R, Rocchi M, Bayona-Bafaluy MP, Enriquez JA, Uziel G, Bertini E, Dionisi-Vici C, Franco B, Meitinger T, Zeviani M (1998) Mutations of SURF-1 in Leigh disease associated with cytochrome c oxidase deficiency. Am J Hum Genet 63:1609–1621. https://doi.org/10.1086/302150
Van den Bulte C, Joshi YV (2007) New product diffusion with influential and imitators. Market Sci 26:400–421. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.1060.0224
Van Lente H, Spitters C, Peine A (2013) Comparing technological hype cycles: towards a theory. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 80:1615–1628. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.12.004
Vettoliere A, Granata C, Esposito E, Russo R, Petti L, Ruggiero B, Russo M (2009) Performance of high-sensitivity nano-SQUIDs based on niobium Dayem bridges. IEEE Trans Appl Supercond 19:702–705. https://doi.org/10.1109/TASC.2009.2019198
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the reviewers for their suggestions that contributed to improve the paper.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Ethical approval
This article does not contain any studies with human participants or animals performed by any of the authors.
Informed consent
Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study.
Additional information
Communicated by M. Squillante.
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ruggiero, B., Amato, U., Franco, B. et al. Life cycle of scientific publications in the field of high social impact. Soft Comput 24, 13657–13666 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-019-04441-1
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-019-04441-1