Skip to main content

Advertisement

Springer Nature Link
Log in

Applying the Delphi and fuzzy DEMATEL methods for identification and prioritization of the variables affecting Iranian citrus exports to Russia

  • Application of soft computing
  • Published:
Soft Computing Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Foreign trade is one of the important components in economic development and a source of foreign exchange earnings. In Iran, the government desires to develop foreign trade with a focus on non-oil exports. One of the substantial non-oil products is agricultural products. Iran is one of the top ten countries in the world in terms of producing agricultural products, especially citrus, but it does not have suitable conditions in terms of exports. Mazandaran province is a considerable source of citrus production in Iran, and the main produced citrus in the province is exported to Russia. Worth bearing in mind that although the production rate of citrus in the province is very well, the amount of export is not very appropriate. Therefore, the government struggles to adopt an appropriate approach to improve the conditions and taking the right approach is not possible without identifying the variables affecting exports. In this regard, in this study, first, the variables affecting citrus exports regarding the case are determined using literature review and the most related those to the case study are selected using the Delphi method. Then, the identified variables are ranked using the fuzzy DEMATEL method. Focusing on the results, it can be observed that “exchange rate fluctuation” and “marketing” have the most and the least impact on the development of citrus exports from the province to Russia, respectively. Moreover, to better analyze the gained results, the determined variables are divided into two main categories based on stages of trade, and each category’s variables are discussed in detail.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

Explore related subjects

Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.

References

  • Abakumova J, Primierova O (2020) Globalization and export flows between Eurasian Economic Union countries: a gravity model approach. SHS Web of Conferences. EDP Sciences, pp 06001

  • Alexandrov AV, Pullicino PM, Meslin EM, Norris JW (1996) Agreement on disease-specific criteria for do-not-resuscitate orders in acute stroke. Stroke 27:232–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Arize AC, Osang T, Slottje DJ (2000) Exchange-rate volatility and foreign trade: evidence from thirteen LDC’s. J Bus Econ Stat 18:10–17

    Google Scholar 

  • Balli F, Louis RJ, Osman M (2011) The patterns of cross-border portfolio investments in the GCC region: do institutional quality and the number of expatriates play a role? J Econ Financ 35:434–455

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bastiaens I, Postnikov E (2017) Greening up: the effects of environmental standards in EU and US trade agreements. Environ Polit 26:847–869

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Baykasoğlu A, Kaplanoğlu V, Durmuşoğlu ZD, Şahin C (2013) Integrating fuzzy DEMATEL and fuzzy hierarchical TOPSIS methods for truck selection. Expert Syst Appl 40:899–907

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Belobrov Y, Volodin A, Demidenko S, Kozyrev N, Lankin E, Novikov V, Sazhin V, Yurtaev V (2014) Modern Russian–Iranian relations: challenges and opportunities

  • Chen H (2009) A literature review on the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth. Int J Econ Financ 1:127–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chiadamrong N, Kawtummachai R (2008) A methodology to support decision-making on sugar distribution for export channel: a case study of Thai sugar industry. Comput Electron Agric 64:248–261

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Crivelli P, Gröschl J (2016) The impact of sanitary and phytosanitary measures on market entry and trade flows. World Econ 39:444–473

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doğanlar M (2002) Estimating the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports: evidence from Asian countries. Appl Econ Lett 9:859–863

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dubravska M, Sira E (2015) The analysis of the factors influencing the international trade of the slovak republic. Proc Econ Financ 23:1210–1216

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ebadi A, Ebadi A (2015) How the export volume is affected by determinant factors in a developing country. Res World Econ 6:143–150

    Google Scholar 

  • Esfahani HS, Mohaddes K, Pesaran MH (2013) Oil exports and the Iranian economy. Q Rev Econ Financ 53:221–237

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esnaashari H, Karbasi A, Mosannen Mozafari M (2010) Foreign trade and input efficiency relationship in the agricultural sector of Iran. Agric Econ Res 2:105–114

    Google Scholar 

  • Feng C, Ma R (2020) Identification of the factors that influence service innovation in manufacturing enterprises by using the fuzzy DEMATEL method. J Clean Prod 253:120002

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Genç S, Akay D, Boran FE, Yager RR (2020) Linguistic summarization of fuzzy social and economic networks: an application on the international trade network. Soft Comput 24:1511–1527

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Goldstein M, Khan MS (1985) Income and price effects in foreign trade. Handb Int Econ 2:1041–1105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon TJ (1994) The Delphi method. Futures Res Methodol 2:1–30

    Google Scholar 

  • Gygli S, Haelg F, Potrafke N, Sturm J-E (2019) The KOF globalisation index–revisited. Rev Int Organ 14:543–574

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall S, Hondroyiannis G, Swamy P, Tavlas G, Ulan M (2010) Exchange-rate volatility and export performance: do emerging market economies resemble industrial countries or other developing countries? Econ Model 27:1514–1521

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han Y, Deng Y (2018) An enhanced fuzzy evidential DEMATEL method with its application to identify critical success factors. Soft Comput 22:5073–5090

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hasheminezhad A, Hadadi F, Shirmohammadi H (2021) Investigation and prioritization of risk factors in the collision of two passenger trains based on fuzzy COPRAS and fuzzy DEMATEL methods. Soft Comput 25:4677–4697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hatab AA (2016) Demand relationships in orange exports to Russia: a differential demand system approach focusing on Egypt. Agric Food Econ 4:1–16

    Google Scholar 

  • Henson S, Loader R (2001) Barriers to agricultural exports from developing countries: the role of sanitary and phytosanitary requirements. World Dev 29:85–102

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosseini SM, Paydar MM (2021a) Discount and advertisement in ecotourism supply chain. Asia Pac J Tour Res 26:668–684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hosseini SM, Paydar MM (2021b) Examining and prioritizing the factors affecting tourist absorption for ecotourism centers utilizing MCDM tools. J. Optim. Indus. Eng. 45:4566

    Google Scholar 

  • https://fsvps.gov.ru.

  • https://knoema.com.

  • Khiyavi PK, Moghaddasi R, Yazdani S (2013) Investigation of factors affecting the international trade of agricultural products in developing countries. Life Sci J 10:409–414

    Google Scholar 

  • Koksal O (2016) Determinants of Turkey’s citrus exports: a gravity model approach. New Medit Mediterr J Econ Agric Environ Revue Méditerranéenne D'economie Agric Et Environ 15:37

    Google Scholar 

  • Kumar A, Kaviani MA, Hafezalkotob A, Zavadskas EK (2017) Evaluating innovation capabilities of real estate firms: a combined fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL approach. Int J Strateg Prop Manag 21:401–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kutan AM, Vukšić G (2007) Foreign direct investment and export performance: empirical evidence. Comp Econ Stud 49:430–445

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee Y-S, Liu W-Y (2014) Forecasting value of agricultural imports using a novel two-stage hybrid model. Comput Electron Agric 104:71–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lewis JR (1993) Multipoint scales: mean and median differences and observed significance levels. Int J Hum Comput Interact 5:383–392

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li H, Wang W, Fan L, Li Q, Chen X (2020) A novel hybrid MCDM model for machine tool selection using fuzzy DEMATEL, entropy weighting and later defuzzification VIKOR. Appl Soft Comput 91:106207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Linstone HA, Turoff M (1975) The delphi method. Addison-Wesley Reading, MA

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Miller KA, Collada B, Tolliver D, Audi Z, Cohen A, Michelson C, Newman LR (2020) Using the modified Delphi method to develop a tool to assess pediatric residents supervising on inpatient rounds. Acad Pediatr 20:89–96

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Moon W (2015) Conceptualising multifunctional agriculture from a global perspective: implications for governing agricultural trade in the post-Doha Round era. Land Use Policy 49:252–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morland C, Schier F, Weimar H (2020) The structural gravity model and its implications on global forest product trade. Forests 11:178

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Murry JR, John W, Hammons JO (1995) Delphi: a versatile methodology for conducting qualitative research. Rev High Educ 18:423–436

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mutamiswa R, Tarusikirwa V, Nyamukondiwa C, Chidawanyika F (2020) Fluctuating environments impact thermal tolerance in an invasive insect species Bactrocera dorsalis (Diptera: Tephritidae). J Appl Entomol 144:885–896

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Najafi Alamdarlo H (2016) Spatial and temporal factors affecting agricultural trade in the European: union:(EU) and economic cooperation organization (ECO). J Agric Sci Technol 18:1721–1733

    Google Scholar 

  • Nijssen EJ, Douglas SP (2004) Examining the animosity model in a country with a high level of foreign trade. Int J Res Mark 21:23–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Okoli C, Pawlowski SD (2004) The Delphi method as a research tool: an example, design considerations and applications. Inform Manag 42:15–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rasoulinezhad, E. 2016. Investigation of sanctions and oil price effects on the Iran-Russia trade by using the gravity model. Becтник Caнкт-Пeтepбypгcкoгo yнивepcитeтa. Экoнoмикa

  • Robbins R, Mcmanus R, Mitchell R, Latter D, Moon M, Olinger G, Miller D (1993) Management of patients with intramural hematoma of the thoracic aorta. Circulation 88:1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Serenis D, Tsounis N (2014) Exchange rate volatility and aggregate exports: evidence from two small countries. Int Sch Res Notices

  • Shah S, Solangi Y, Ikram M (2019) Analysis of barriers to the adoption of cleaner energy technologies in Pakistan using Modified Delphi and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. J Clean Prod 235:1037–1050

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Singh PK, Sarkar P (2020) A framework based on fuzzy Delphi and DEMATEL for sustainable product development: a case of Indian automotive industry. J Clean Prod 246:118991

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Spreen TH, Gao Z, Fernandes W Jr, Zansler ML (2020) Global economics and marketing of citrus products. Elsevier, The Genus Citrus

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Sung W (2001) Application of Delphi method, a qualitative and quantitative analysis, to the healthcare management. J Healthc Manag 2:11–19

    Google Scholar 

  • Suo W-L, Feng B, Fan Z-P (2012) Extension of the DEMATEL method in an uncertain linguistic environment. Soft Comput 16:471–483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Teimoury E, Nedaei H, Ansari S, SABBAGHI, M. (2013) A multi-objective analysis for import quota policy making in a perishable fruit and vegetable supply chain: a system dynamics approach. Comput Electron Agric 93:37–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Temiz Dinç D, Gökmen A, Nakip M, Azari NM (2017) The impact of foreign trade issues on economic growth in some developing countries including Iran and Turkey. J Transnatl Manag 22:171–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tzeng G-H, Chen W-H, Yu R, Shih M-L (2010) Fuzzy decision maps: a generalization of the DEMATEL methods. Soft Comput 14:1141–1150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • www.maj.ir.

  • Zahonogo P (2016) Trade and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from sub-Saharan Africa. J Afr Trade 3:41–56

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhao H, Guo S (2015) External benefit evaluation of renewable energy power in China for sustainability. Sustainability 7:4783–4805

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

Not applicable.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Industrial Engineering, Babol Noshirvani University of Technology, Babol, Iran

    Seyyed Mehdi Hosseini, Yazdan Soltanpour & Mohammad Mahdi Paydar

Authors
  1. Seyyed Mehdi Hosseini
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yazdan Soltanpour
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mohammad Mahdi Paydar
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author inPubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

SMH, YS, and MMP contributed to the design and implementation of the research, to the analysis of the results and the writing of the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Mohammad Mahdi Paydar.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

All three authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Ethical approval

This study does not involve any human participants or animals’ studies performed by any of the authors.

Informed consent

Not applicable.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hosseini, S.M., Soltanpour, Y. & Paydar, M.M. Applying the Delphi and fuzzy DEMATEL methods for identification and prioritization of the variables affecting Iranian citrus exports to Russia. Soft Comput 26, 9543–9556 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-022-06738-0

Download citation

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-022-06738-0

Keywords