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A support vector machine based MSM model for financial short-term volatility forecasting

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Abstract

Financial time series forecasting has become a challenge because of its long-memory, thick tails and volatility persistence. Multifractal process has recently been proposed as a new formalism for this problem. An iterative Markov-Switching Multifractal (MSM) model was introduced to the literature. It is able to capture many of the important stylized features of the financial time series, including long-memory in volatility, volatility clustering, and return outliers. The model delivers stronger performance both in- and out-of-sample than GARCH-type models in long-term forecasts. To enhance MSM’s short-term prediction accuracy, this paper proposes a support vector machine (SVM) based MSM approach which exploits MSM model to forecast volatility and SVM to model the innovations. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, two stock indexes in the Chinese A-share market are chosen as the forecasting targets. Comparing with some existing state-of-the-art models, the proposed approach gives superior results. It indicates that the proposed model provides a promising alternative to financial short-term volatility prediction.

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported by the High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA01Z197), the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60435020), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.60873168, No.60603028, No.60703015, No.61075037, No.61173075, No.60973076) and Shenzhen Municipal Science and Technology Plan(JC200903130224A, JC201005280522A).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Computer Science and Technology, Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen, 518055, China

    Baohua Wang, Hejiao Huang & Xiaolong Wang

  2. College of Mathematics and Computational Science, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, 518060, China

    Baohua Wang

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  1. Baohua Wang
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  2. Hejiao Huang
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  3. Xiaolong Wang
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Correspondence to Baohua Wang.

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Wang, B., Huang, H. & Wang, X. A support vector machine based MSM model for financial short-term volatility forecasting. Neural Comput & Applic 22, 21–28 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-011-0742-z

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