Skip to main content
Log in

A hybridization of teaching–learning-based optimization and differential evolution for chaotic time series prediction

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Neural Computing and Applications Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Chaotic time series prediction problems have some very interesting properties and their prediction has received increasing interest in the recent years. Prediction of chaotic time series based on the phase space reconstruction theory has been applied in many research fields. It is well known that prediction of a chaotic system is a nonlinear, multivariable and multimodal optimization problem for which global optimization techniques are required in order to avoid local optima. In this paper, a new hybrid algorithm named teaching–learning-based optimization (TLBO)–differential evolution (DE), which integrates TLBO and DE, is proposed to solve chaotic time series prediction. DE is incorporated into update the previous best positions of individuals to force TLBO jump out of stagnation, because of its strong searching ability. The proposed hybrid algorithm speeds up the convergence and improves the algorithm’s performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our approaches, ten benchmark functions and three typical chaotic nonlinear time series prediction problems are used for simulating. Conducted experiments indicate that the TLBO–DE performs significantly better than, or at least comparable to, TLBO and some other algorithms.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Mackey MC, Glass L (1977) Oscillation and chaos in physiological control systems. Science 197(4300):287–289

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Bünner MJ, Meyer T, Kittel A et al (1997) Recovery of the time-evolution equation of time-delay systems from time series. Phys Rev E 56(5):5083

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  3. Donate JP, Li X, Sánchez GG, de Miguel AS (2013) Time series forecasting by evolving artificial neural networks with genetic algorithms, differential evolution and estimation of distribution algorithm. Neural Comput Appl 22(1):11–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Nasr MB, Chtourou M (2008) A fuzzy neighborhood-based training algorithm for feedforward neural networks. Neural Comput Appl 18(2):127–133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Górriz JM, Puntonet CG, Salmerón M et al (2004) A new model for time-series forecasting using radial basis functions and exogenous data. Neural Comput Appl 13(2):101–111

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Sitte R, Sitte J (2000) Analysis of the predictive ability of time delay neural networks applied to the S&P 500 time series. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Part C Appl Rev 30(4):568–572

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Chen L, Chen G (2000) Fuzzy modeling, prediction, and control of uncertain chaotic systems based on time series. IEEE transactions on circuits and systems-I: Fundamental theory and applications 47(10):1527–1531

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  8. Gromov VA, Shulga AN (2012) Chaotic time series prediction with employment of ant colony optimization[J]. Expert Syst Appl 39(9):8474–8478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Sheikhan M, Mohammadi N (2012) Time series prediction using PSO-optimized neural network and hybrid feature selection algorithm for IEEE load data. Neural Comput Appl. doi:10.1007/s00521-012-0980-8

    Google Scholar 

  10. Wang J, Chi D, Wu J, Lu HY (2011) Chaotic time series method combined with particle swarm optimization and trend adjustment for electricity demand forecasting. Expert Syst Appl 38(7):8419–8429

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Akaike H (1969) Fitting autoregressive models for prediction. Annals of the institute of Statistical Mathematics 21(1):243–247

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. Ben Mabrouk A, Ben Abdallah N, Dhifaoui Z (2008) Wavelet decomposition and autoregressive model for time series prediction. Appl Math Comput 199(1):334–340

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Navarro-Moreno J (2008) ARMA prediction of widely linear systems by using the innovations algorithm. IEEE Trans Signal Process 56(7):3061–3068

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  14. Hyndman RJ (2008) Forecasting with exponential smoothing. Springer, New York

    Book  MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. Lu Y, AbouRizk SM (2009) Automated Box-Jenkins forecasting modelling. Automation in Construction 18(5):547–558

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Han M, Wang Y (2009) Analysis and modeling of multivariate chaotic time series based on neural network. Expert Syst Appl 36(2):1280–1290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Singh P, Borah B (2013) High-order fuzzy-neuro expert system for time series forecasting. Knowl-Based Syst 46:12–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Sapankevych N, Sankar R (2009) Time series prediction using support vector machines: a survey. IEEE Comput Intell Mag 4(2):24–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Bang YK, Lee CK (2011) Fuzzy time series prediction using hierarchical clustering algorithms. Expert Syst Appl 38(4):4312–4325

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Dhahri H, Alimi AM (2006) The modified differential evolution and the RBF (MDE-RBF) neural network for time series prediction. Neural Networks, 2006. IJCNN’06. International Joint Conference on. IEEE 2006:2938–2943

    Google Scholar 

  21. Mirzaee H (2009) Linear combination rule in genetic algorithm for optimization of finite impulse response neural network to predict natural chaotic time series. Chaos, Solitons Fractals 41(5):2681–2689

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Tang Y, Guan X (2009) Parameter estimation of chaotic system with time-delay: a differential evolution approach. Chaos, Solitons Fractals 42(5):3132–3139

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  23. Zhao L, Yang Y (2009) PSO-based single multiplicative neuron model for time series prediction. Expert Syst Appl 36(2):2805–2812

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  24. Samanta B (2011) Prediction of chaotic time series using computational intelligence. Expert Syst Appl 38(9):11406–11411

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  25. Dai C, Chen W, Li L, Zhu Y, Yang Y (2011) Seeker optimization algorithm for parameter estimation of time-delay chaotic systems. Phys Rev E 83:036203

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  26. Gromov VA, Shulga AN (2012) Chaotic time series prediction with employment of ant colony optimization. Expert Syst Appl 39(9):8474–8478

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Rao RV, Savsani VJ, Vakharia DP (2011) Teaching-learning-based optimization: a novel method for constrained mechanical design optimization problems. Computer-Aided Design 43(3):303–315

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Rao RV, Savsani VJ, Vakharia DP (2012) Teaching-learning-based optimization: an optimization method for continuous non-linear large scale problems. Inf Sci 183(1):1–15

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  29. Niknam T, Azizipanah-Abarghooee R, Rasoul Narimani M (2012) A new multi objective optimization approach based on TLBO for location of automatic voltage regulators in distribution systems. Eng Appl Artif Intell 25(8):1577–1588

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Rao RV, Kalyankar VD (2013) Parameter optimization of modern machining processes using teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm. Eng Appl Artif Intell 26(1):524–531

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Li G, Niu P, Zhang W, Liu Y (2013) Model NOx emissions by least squares support vector machine with tuning based on ameliorated teaching-learning-based optimization. Chemometrics and Intelligent Laboratory Systems 126:11–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Rao RV, Patel V (2013) An improved teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm for solving unconstrained optimization problems. Scientia Iranica 20(3):710–720

    MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  33. Rao RV, Patel V (2012) An elitist teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm for solving complex constrained optimization problems. Int J Ind Eng Comput 3(4):535–560

    Google Scholar 

  34. Rao RV, Patel V (2013) Comparative performance of an elitist teaching-learning-based optimization algorithm for solving unconstrained optimization problems. Int J Ind Eng Comput 4(1):29–50

    Google Scholar 

  35. Degertekin SO, Hayalioglu MS (2013) Sizing truss structures using teaching-learning-based optimization. Comput Struct 119:177–188

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Martín García JA, Gil Mena AJ (2013) Optimal distributed generation location and size using a modified teaching-learning based optimization algorithm. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 50:65–75

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Storn R, Price K (1997) Differential evolution—A simple and efficient heuristic for global optimization over continuous spaces. J Global Optim 11:341–359

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  38. Brest J, Greiner S, Boskovic B, Mernik M, Zumer V (2006) Self-adapting control parameters in differential evolution: a comparative study on numerical benchmark problems. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 10(6):646–657

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Qin AK, Huang VL, Suganthan PN (2009) Differential evolution algorithm with strategy adaptation for global numerical optimization. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 13(2):398–417

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Clerc M, Kennedy J (2002) The particle swarm-explosion, stability, and convergence in a multidimensional complex space. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 6(1):58–73

    Article  Google Scholar 

  41. Mendes R, Kennedy J, Neves J (2004) The fully informed particle swarm: simpler, maybe better. IEEE IEEE Transactions on Evolutionary Computation 8(3):204–210

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. K. E. Parsopoulos and M. N. Vrahatis (2004). UPSO—A unified particle swarm optimization scheme. In Lecture Series on Computational Sciences, 868–873

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (61100173, 61272283 and 61304082). This work is partially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province, China (Grants No. 1308085MF82). This work is also supported by Doctoral Innovation Foundation of Xi’an University of Technology (207-002J1305). We would like to acknowledge http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/data/ts/ for providing us the data sets. The authors would like to thank the editor and reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Feng Zou.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, L., Zou, F., Hei, X. et al. A hybridization of teaching–learning-based optimization and differential evolution for chaotic time series prediction. Neural Comput & Applic 25, 1407–1422 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-014-1627-8

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-014-1627-8

Keywords

Navigation