Abstract
Nowadays the ever-increasing energy consumption in buildings has caused supply shortages and adverse environmental impacts. The accurate prediction of energy consumption in smart buildings may help to monitor and control energy usage. As energy consumption is inevitably affected by exogenous factors such as temperature and wind speed, it is fundamentally important to select the informative channels of the factors, to extract the valuable features from the selected channels applied to the optimal-configured model, to improve prediction accuracy. However, existing work considers these parts in an almost disjoint way and lacks a model taking them into account, which may decrease prediction performance. Motivated by this challenge, an end-to-end prediction framework, called evolutionary model construction (EMC), is proposed to focus on performing these parts jointly. To implement EMC, a two-step evolutionary algorithm (EA) is designed, where one EA is firstly used to focus on exploiting the informative channels, while a new algorithm is proposed to concentrate on selecting the suitable feature extraction methods and respective time window sizes applied to the selected channels, and selecting the parameters in the predictor. The implementation of EMC chooses neural network with random weights as the predictor due to its highly recognized efficacy. We evaluate EMC in comparison with the existing approaches on a real-world electricity consumption dataset with various auxiliary factors. The superiority of EMC is further proved by analyzing and discussing the result according to the days in 1 week, time stamps in 1 day and month information on test samples.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Du Y, Jiang L, Duan C, Li Y, Smith J (2018) Energy consumption scheduling of HVAC considering weather forecast error through the distributionally robust approach. IEEE Trans Ind Inf 14(3):846–857
Khan Y, Khare VR, Mathur J, Bhandari M (2015) Performance evaluation of radiant cooling system integrated with air system under different operational strategies. Energy Build 97:118–128
Pérez-Lombard L, Ortiz J, Pout C (2008) A review on buildings energy consumption information. Energy Build 40(3):394–398
Ghelardoni L, Ghio A, Anguita D (2013) Energy load forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression. IEEE Trans Smart Grid 4(1):549–556
Jindal A, Kumar N, Rodrigues JJ (2018) A heuristic-based smart HVAC energy management scheme for university buildings. IEEE Trans Ind Inf 14(11):5074–5086
Edwards RE, New J, Parker LE (2012) Predicting future hourly residential electrical consumption: a machine learning case study. Energy Build 49:591–603
Shen YT, Wei RH, Xu LH (2018) Energy consumption prediction of a greenhouse and optimization of daily average temperature. Energies 11(1):65
Voronin S, Partanen J (2014) Forecasting electricity price and demand using a hybrid approach based on wavelet transform, ARIMA and neural networks. Int J Energy Res 38(5):626–637
Ceperic E, Ceperic V, Baric A (2013) A strategy for short-term load forecasting by support vector regression machines. IEEE Trans Power Syst 28(4):4356–4364
Chang CC, Lin CJ (2011) LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines. ACM Trans Intell Syst Technol (TIST) 2:1–27
Huang GB, Zhu QY, Siew CK (2006) Extreme learning machine: theory and applications. Neurocomputing 70:489–501
Ruiz LGB, Rueda R, Cuéllar MP, Pegalajar M (2018) Energy consumption forecasting based on elman neural networks with evolutive optimization. Expert Syst Appl 92:380–389
Abedinia O, Amjady N, Zareipour H (2017) A new feature selection technique for load and price forecast of electrical power systems. IEEE Trans Power Syst 32(1):62–74
Song H, Qin AK, Salim FD (2016) Multivariate electricity consumption prediction with extreme learning machine. In: Proceedings of the 2016 international joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN), pp 2313–2320
Meng M, Niu DX, Sun W (2011) Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption using feature extraction. Energies 4(10):1495–1507
Li KJ, Hu CL, Liu GH, Xue WP (2015) Building’s electricity consumption prediction using optimized artificial neural networks and principal component analysis. Energy Build 108:106–113
Fan C, Xiao F, Wang SW (2014) Development of prediction models for next-day building energy consumption and peak power demand using data mining techniques. Appl Energy 127:1–10
Qin AK, Suganthan PN, Loog M (2005) Uncorrelated heteroscedastic LDA based on the weighted pairwise Chernoff criterion. Pattern Recognit 38(4):613–616
Qin AK, Suganthan PN, Loog M (2006) Generalized null space uncorrelated fisher discriminant analysis for linear dimensionality reduction. Pattern Recognit 39(9):1805–1808
Storn R, Price K (1997) Differential evolution—a simple and efficient heuristic for global optimization over continuous spaces. J Glob Optim 11(4):341–359
Liang JJ, Baskar S, Suganthan PN, Qin AK (2006) Performance evaluation of multiagent genetic algorithm. Natural Comput 5(1):83–96
Lynn N, Ali MZ, Suganthan PN (2018) Population topologies for particle swarm optimization and differential evolution. Swarm Evol Comput 39:24–35
Wang L, Zeng Y, Chen T (2015) Back propagation neural network with adaptive differential evolution algorithm for time series forecasting. Expert Syst Appl 42(2):855–863
Cao W, Wang X, Ming Z, Gao J (2018) A review on neural networks with random weights. Neurocomputing 275:278–287
Rafiei M, Niknam T, Aghaei J, Shafie-Khah M, Catalão JP (2018) Probabilistic load forecasting using an improved wavelet neural network trained by generalized extreme learning machine. IEEE Trans Smart Grid 9:1–10
Duan M, Li KL, Liao X, Li KQ (2018) A parallel multiclassification algorithm for big data using an extreme learning machine. IEEE Trans Neural Netw Learn Syst 29(6):2337–2351
Qu BY, Lang BF, Liang JJ, Qin AK, Crisalle OD (2016) Two-hidden-layer extreme learning machine for regression and classification. Neurocomputing 175:826–834
Ren Y, Suganthan PN, Srikanth N, Amaratunga G (2016) Random vector functional link network for short-term electricity load demand forecasting. Inf Sci 367:1078–1093
Tang JX, Deng CW, Huang GB (2016) Extreme learning machine for multilayer perceptron. IEEE Trans Neural Netw Learn Syst 27(4):809–821
Cho K, Van Merriënboer B, Gulcehre C, Bahdanau D, Bougares F, Schwenk H, Bengio Y (2014) Learning phrase representations using RNN encoder-decoder for statistical machine translation. Preprint. arXiv:14061078
Gers FA, Schmidhuber J, Cummins F (2000) Learning to forget: continual prediction with LSTM. Neural Comput 12(10):2451
Yun K, Luck R, Mago PJ, Cho H (2012) Building hourly thermal load prediction using an indexed ARX model. Energy Build 54:225–233
Feng XH, Yan D, Hong TZ (2015) Simulation of occupancy in buildings. Energy Build 87:348–359
Ahmad A, Hassan M, Abdullah M, Rahman H, Hussin F, Abdullah H, Saidur R (2014) A review on applications of ANN and SVM for building electrical energy consumption forecasting. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 33:102–109
Chandrashekar G, Sahin F (2014) A survey on feature selection methods. Comput Electr Eng 40(1):16–28
Rana M, Koprinska I, Troncoso A (2014) Forecasting hourly electricity load profile using neural networks. In: Proceedings of the 2014 international joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN), pp 824–831
Koprinska I, Rana M, Agelidis VG (2015) Correlation and instance based feature selection for electricity load forecasting. Knowl Based Syst 82:29–40
Hu ZY, Bao YK, Xiong T, Chiong R (2015) Hybrid filter-wrapper feature selection for short-term load forecasting. Eng Appl Artif Intell 40:17–27
Ahmad A, Javaid N, Alrajeh N, Khan ZA, Qasim U, Khan A (2015) A modified feature selection and artificial neural network-based day-ahead load forecasting model for a smart grid. Appl Sci 5(4):1756–1772
Kouhi S, Keynia F, Ravadanegh SN (2014) A new short-term load forecast method based on neuro-evolutionary algorithm and chaotic feature selection. Int J Electr Power Energy Syst 62:862–867
Li S, Wang P, Goel L (2016) A novel wavelet-based ensemble method for short-term load forecasting with hybrid neural networks and feature selection. IEEE Trans Power Syst 31(3):1788–1798
Chae YT, Horesh R, Hwang Y, Lee YM (2016) Artificial neural network model for forecasting sub-hourly electricity usage in commercial buildings. Energy Build 111:184–194
Jurado S, Nebot À, Mugica F, Avellana N (2015) Hybrid methodologies for electricity load forecasting: entropy-based feature selection with machine learning and soft computing techniques. Energy 86:276–291
Tc Fu (2011) A review on time series data mining. Eng Appl Artif Intell 24(1):164–181
Sheikhan M, Mohammadi N (2012) Neural-based electricity load forecasting using hybrid of GA and ACO for feature selection. Neural Comput Appl 21(8):1961–1970
Ghofrani M, Ghayekhloo M, Arabali A, Ghayekhloo A (2015) A hybrid short-term load forecasting with a new input selection framework. Energy 81:777–786
Protić M, Shamshirband S, Petković D, Abbasi A, Kiah MLM, Unar JA, Živković L, Raos M (2015) Forecasting of consumers heat load in district heating systems using the support vector machine with a discrete wavelet transform algorithm. Energy 87:343–351
de Oliveira EM, Oliveira FLC (2018) Forecasting mid-long term electric energy consumption through bagging ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods. Energy 144:776–788
Quan H, Srinivasan D, Khosravi A (2014) Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals. IEEE Trans Neural Netw Learn Syst 25(2):303–315
Kavaklioglu K (2011) Modeling and prediction of Turkey’s electricity consumption using support vector regression. Appl Energy 88(1):368–375
Bouktif S, Fiaz A, Ouni A, Serhani M (2018) Optimal deep learning LSTM model for electric load forecasting using feature selection and genetic algorithm: comparison with machine learning approaches. Energies 11(7):1636
Xue B, Zhang M, Browne WN, Yao X (2016) A survey on evolutionary computation approaches to feature selection. IEEE Trans Evol Comput 20(4):606–626
Hu Z, Bao Y, Xiong T (2014) Comprehensive learning particle swarm optimization based memetic algorithm for model selection in short-term load forecasting using support vector regression. Appl Soft Comput 25:15–25
Sheikhan M, Mohammadi N (2013) Time series prediction using PSO-optimized neural network and hybrid feature selection algorithm for IEEE load data. Neural Comput Appl 23(3–4):1185–1194
Luo G, Yi K, Cheng SW, Li Z, Fan W, He C, Mu Y (2015) Piecewise linear approximation of streaming time series data with max-error guarantees. In: Proceedings of the 31st international conference on data engineering (ICDE), pp 173–184
Kenndy J, Eberhart R (1995) Particle swarm optimization. In: Proceedings of the IEEE international conference on neural networks, vol. 4, pp 1942–1948
Rao CR, Mitra SK (1971) Generalized inverse of matrices and its applications, vol 7. Wiley, New York
Pao YH, Takefuji Y (1992) Functional-link net computing: theory, system architecture, and functionalities. Computer 25(5):76–79
Zhang R, Lan Y, Huang GB, Xu ZB (2012) Universal approximation of extreme learning machine with adaptive growth of hidden nodes. IEEE Trans Neural Netw Learn Syst 23:365–371
Song H, Qin AK, Salim FD (2017) Multi-resolution selective ensemble extreme learning machine for electricity consumption prediction. In: Proceedings of the international conference on neural information processing (ICONIP), pp 600–609
Song H, Qin AK, Salim FD (2018) Evolutionary multi-objective ensemble learning for multivariate electricity consumption prediction. In: Proceedings of 2018 international joint conference on neural networks (IJCNN), pp 1–8
Huang GB, Zhou HM, Ding XJ, Zhang R (2012) Extreme learning machine for regression and multiclass classification. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern Part B (Cybern) 42(2):513–529
Qin AK, Raimondo F, Forbes F, Ong YS (2012) An improved CUDA-based implementation of differential evolution on GPU. In: Proceedings of the 14th annual conference on genetic and evolutionary computation (GECCO), pp 991–998
Wong TH, Qin AK, Wang S, Shi Y (2015) cuSaDE: a CUDA-based parallel self-adaptive differential evolution algorithm. In: Proceedings of the 18th Asia Pacific symposium on intelligent and evolutionary systems, pp 375–388
Acknowledgements
This work is supported by Buildings Engineered for Sustainability research Project, funded by RMIT Sustainable Urban Precincts Program.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Song, H., Qin, A.K. & Salim, F.D. Evolutionary model construction for electricity consumption prediction. Neural Comput & Applic 32, 12155–12172 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04310-w
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04310-w