Abstract
Gold price volatilities have a significant impact on many financial activities of the world. The development of a reliable prediction model could offer insights in gold price fluctuations, behavior and dynamics and ultimately could provide the opportunity of gaining significant profits. In this work, we propose a new deep learning forecasting model for the accurate prediction of gold price and movement. The proposed model exploits the ability of convolutional layers for extracting useful knowledge and learning the internal representation of time-series data as well as the effectiveness of long short-term memory (LSTM) layers for identifying short-term and long-term dependencies. We conducted a series of experiments and evaluated the proposed model against state-of-the-art deep learning and machine learning models. The preliminary experimental analysis illustrated that the utilization of LSTM layers along with additional convolutional layers could provide a significant boost in increasing the forecasting performance.



Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.References
Ai Y, Li Z, Gan M, Zhang Y, Yu D, Chen W, Ju Y (2019) A deep learning approach on short-term spatiotemporal distribution forecasting of dockless bike-sharing system. Neural Comput Appl 31(5):1665–1677
Askari M, Askari H (2011) Time series grey system prediction-based models: gold price forecasting. Trends Appl Sci Res 6(11):1287–1292
Baur DG, McDermott TK (2010) Is gold a safe haven? International evidence. J Bank Finance 34(8):1886–1898
Bengio Y, Courville A, Vincent P (2013) Representation learning: a review and new perspectives. IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell 35(8):1798–1828
Choudhry SS, Hassan T, Shabi S (2015) Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: evidence from nonlinear causality tests. Int Rev Financ Anal 41:247–256
Daniel G (2013) Principles of artificial neural networks, vol 7. World Scientific, Singapore
Demertzis K, Iliadis L, Anezakis VD (2017) A deep spiking machine-hearing system for the case of invasive fish species. In: 2017 IEEE International conference on innovations in intelligent systems and applications (INISTA), IEEE, pp 23–28
Demertzis K, Iliadis L, Bougoudis I (2019) Gryphon: a semi-supervised anomaly detection system based on one-class evolving spiking neural network. Neural Comput Appl. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04363-x
Deng N, Tian Y, Zhang C (2012) Support vector machines: optimization based theory, algorithms, and extensions. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton
Dubey AD (2016) Gold price prediction using support vector regression and ANFIS models. In: 2016 International conference on computer communication and informatics (ICCCI), IEEE, pp 1–6
Fawaz HI, Forestier G, Weber J, Idoumghar L, Muller PA (2019) Deep learning for time series classification: a review. Data Min Knowl Disc 33(4):917–963
Guha B, Bandyopadhyay G (2016) Gold price forecasting using ARIMA model. J Adv Manag Sci. https://doi.org/10.12720/joams.4.2.117-121
Gulli A, Pal S (2017) Deep learning with Keras. Packt Publishing Ltd, Birmingham
Hochreiter S, Schmidhuber J (1997) Long short-term memory. Neural Comput 9(8):1735–1780
Jianwei E, Ye J, Jin H (2019) A novel hybrid model on the prediction of time series and its application for the gold price analysis and forecasting. Phys A 527:1–14
Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton G (2012) ImageNet: classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In: Advances in neural information processing systems, IEEE, pp 1097–1105
Li J, Dai Q, Ye R (2018) A novel double incremental learning algorithm for time series prediction. Neural Comput Appl 31(10):6055–77
Liu D, Li Z (2017) Gold price forecasting and related influence factors analysis based on random forest. In: Proceedings of the 10th international conference on management science and engineering management, Springer, pp 711–723
Livieris IE (2020) An advanced active set L-BFGS algorithm for training weight-constrained neural networks. Neural Comput Appl. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-019-04689-6
Liping X, Mingzhi L (2011) Short-term analysis and prediction of gold price based on ARIMA model. Finance Econ 1
Makridou G, Atsalakis GS, Zopounidis C, Andriosopoulos K (2013) Gold price forecasting with a neuro-fuzzy-based inference. Int J Financ Eng Risk Manag 1(1):35–54
Pedregosa F, Varoquaux G, Gramfort A, Michel V, Thirion B, Grisel O, Blondel M, Prettenhofer P, Weiss R, Dubourg V (2011) Scikit-learn: machine learning in python. J Mach Learn Res 12:2825–2830
Rawat W, Wang Z (2017) Deep convolutional neural networks for image classification: a comprehensive review. Neural Comput 29(9):2352–2449
Reid D, Jaafar HA, Hissam T (2014) Financial time series prediction using spiking neural networks. PloS One 9(8):e103656
Salis VE, Kumari A, Singh A (2019) Prediction of gold stock market using hybrid approach. In: Emerging research in electronics, computer science and technology, Springer, pp 803–812
Schliebs S, Kasabov N (2013) Evolving spiking neural network: a survey. Evol Syst 4(2):87–98
Shafiee S, Topal E (2010) An overview of global gold market and gold price forecasting. Resour Policy 35(3):178–189
ur Sami I (2017) Predicting future gold rates using machine learning approach. Int J Adv Comput Sci Appl 8(12):92–99
Wang GJ, Xie C, Jiang ZQ, Stanley HE (2016) Extreme risk spillover effects in world gold markets and the global financial crisis. Int Rev Econ Finance 46:55–77
Wen F, Yang X, Gong X, Lai KK (2017) Multi-scale volatility feature analysis and prediction of gold price. Int J Inf Technol Decis Mak 16(01):205–223
Zheng J, Fu X, Zhang G (2019) Research on exchange rate forecasting based on deep belief network. Neural Comput Appl 31(1):573–582
Zou W, Xia Y (2019) Back propagation bidirectional extreme learning machine for traffic flow time series prediction. Neural Comput Appl 31:7401–7414
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflict of interest
The authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Livieris, I.E., Pintelas, E. & Pintelas, P. A CNN–LSTM model for gold price time-series forecasting. Neural Comput & Applic 32, 17351–17360 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04867-x
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-020-04867-x