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Multi-scale deep echo state network for time series prediction

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Abstract

Echo state network (ESN) has widely attracted many researchers due to its training process without backpropagation. However, it is hard for single ESN to fit those complex and polytrophic situations. Under this case, a novel multiscale deep ESN (MDESN) is developed in this study, which integrates the deep learning, parallel structure and multiscale reservoir state matrix mode, respectively. The deep framework is responsible for collecting multivariate dimensional reservoir states; Upgradation of various reservoir states could efficiently dig hidden characteristics for decoding. The parallel structure could be trained simultaneously to decrease time consumption through the multiple thread method. According to the multivariate high dimensional mapping method, MDESN could obtain more robust generalization information compared to the state-of-the-art models. MDESN is evaluated in two chaos prediction benchmarks (Lorenz and Mackey-Glass) and real solar irradiance predictions. Various prediction horizons including one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead prediction are designed and conducted respectively to verify the effectiveness and robustness of MDESN. Furthermore, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and R are adopted to evaluate our proposed model. The statistical results demonstrate that MDESN has the best-performing adaptability and robustness compared to classical ESN, deep ESN (DESN), and other state-of-the-art models.

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Data availability statement

Data are available on request from the authors.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (62163026, 62303206, 52178271), the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi Province (20224BAB212018, 20224BAB212019), and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFE0198900, 2021YFF0500903).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Advanced Manufacturing, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330031, China

    Tao Li & Qian Li

  2. College of Information Engineering, Nanchang University, Nanchang, 330031, China

    Zhijun Guo

  3. College of Automation, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400044, China

    Zhou Wu

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  1. Tao Li
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  2. Zhijun Guo
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  3. Qian Li
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  4. Zhou Wu
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Correspondence to Qian Li or Zhou Wu.

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Li, T., Guo, Z., Li, Q. et al. Multi-scale deep echo state network for time series prediction. Neural Comput & Applic 36, 13305–13325 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-024-09761-4

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