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Optimizing operational parameters through minimization of running costs for shared mobility public transit service: an application of decision tree models

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Abstract

The aim of this study was to use machine learning model for prediction of running costs of public transport buses in Karachi, which is the most widely used mode of shared mobility in this city. To achieve this objective, classification and regression tree (CART) models have been used. Later on, the prediction models were used to determine the optimum operating parameters of public transport buses in Karachi. An interview study was conducted to acquire their operational and cost parameters. The dataset comprised for operational and maintenance parameters of 146 buses of various specifications. Running costs were calculated on the basis of number of passengers, hours of service and distance traveled. From the CART models, it was found that the minimum total weekly distance traveled by the vehicle should be 297 km, below which costs start to increase. Similarly, optimum values could also be found, from CART models, for other parameters, such as; number of passengers, number of hours in which the vehicle was running, and type of vehicle. The findings of this study would be helpful in designing future shared mobility public transit options, such as metro.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the support provided by NED University of Engineering and Technology, and Exponent Engineers Inc. in data collection.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban and Infrastructure Engineering, NED University of Engineering and Technology, Karachi, Pakistan

    Adnan Qadir

  2. College of Technological Innovation (CTI), Zayed University, Dubai, UAE

    Fatma Outay

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bahrain, Isa Town, Bahrain

    Uneb Gazder

  4. Urban Nerves, Karachi, Pakistan

    Muhammad Bilal Khalid

Authors
  1. Adnan Qadir
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  2. Fatma Outay
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  3. Uneb Gazder
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  4. Muhammad Bilal Khalid
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Contributions

The authors confirm contribution to the paper as follows: study conception and design: Adnan Qadir, Uneb Gazder; data collection: Adnan Qadir, Bilal Khalid; analysis and interpretation of results: Uneb Gazder, Bilal Khalid; draft manuscript preparation: Adnan Qadir, Uneb Gazder. All authors reviewed the results and approved the final version of the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Uneb Gazder.

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Qadir, A., Outay, F., Gazder, U. et al. Optimizing operational parameters through minimization of running costs for shared mobility public transit service: an application of decision tree models. Pers Ubiquit Comput 27, 1655–1668 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00779-023-01739-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00779-023-01739-8

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