Abstract
This paper studies the impact, on no-arbitrage conditions, of stopping the price process at an arbitrary random time. As price processes, we consider the class of quasi-left-continuous semimartingales, i.e., semimartingales that do not jump at predictable stopping times. We focus on the condition of no unbounded profit with bounded risk (called NUPBR), also known in the literature as no arbitrage of the first kind. The first principal result describes all the pairs of quasi-left-continuous market models and random times for which the resulting stopped model fulfils NUPBR. Furthermore, for a subclass of quasi-left-continuous local martingales, we construct explicitly martingale deflators, i.e., strictly positive local martingales whose product with the price process stopped at a random time is a local martingale. The second principal result characterises the random times that preserve NUPBR under stopping for any quasi-left-continuous model. The analysis carried out in the paper is based on new stochastic developments in the theory of progressive enlargements of filtrations.
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Notes
A process \(S\) is quasi-left-continuous if it does not jump at predictable stopping times.
We recall that \(\mathcal{E}(X)=\exp (X-\frac{1}{{2}}\langle X\rangle ^{\mathbb{H}})\), for any continuous ℍ-semimartingale \(X\).
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Acknowledgements
The research of Tahir Choulli and Jun Deng has been financially supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, through Grant RES0020459. The research of Anna Aksamit and Monique Jeanblanc has been supported by Chaire Markets in Transition, French Banking Federation, Institut Louis Bachelier et Labex ANR 11-LABX-0019. The research of Anna Aksamit has been additionally supported by the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013)/ERC grant agreement no. 335421.
Tahir Choulli would like to thank Monique Jeanblanc and LaMME (Evry Val d’Essonne University), where this work started and was completed, for their hospitality and their welcome. All four authors are very grateful to Marek Rutkowski for his advice, comments/remarks, and numerous suggestions that helped improving the paper tremendously. The four authors are fully responsible for any possible errors.
The authors would like to thank two anonymous referees and Martin Schweizer for their comments and advice that helped improving a previous version of the paper.
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Appendices
Appendix A: Deflator in terms of predictable characteristics
For undefined notations, we refer the reader to Sect. 5.1 (see also [23, Chapter III] and [24, Chapter 2]). Here, we consider an \((\mathbb{H}, Q)\)-semimartingale \(X\). We denote by \(\mu _{X}\) the random measure associated to the jumps of \(X\), and by \(\nu _{X}\) its \((\mathbb{H},Q)\)-compensator. Suppose that the canonical decomposition of the model \((X,\mathbb{H}, Q)\) takes the form
where \(h\) is the truncation function. This, by virtue of Sect. 5.1, is equivalent to saying that the predictable characteristics of this model are \((b,c,F,A)\). The elements of this quadruplet naturally depend on the model itself, and we write \(b^{X,\mathbb{H},Q}\) instead of \(b\) and so on. However, here we opt for simplified notations as there is no risk of confusion.
Theorem A.1
Consider the model \((X,\mathbb{H},Q)\) defined above with its predictable characteristics \((b,c,F,A)\). Then \((X,\mathbb{H},Q)\) satisfies NUPBR if and only if there exists a pair \((\beta , f)\) consisting of an ℍ-predictable process and a \(\widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{H})\)-measurable functional satisfying
Proof
This follows by combining Proposition 2.3 and [11, Lemma 2.4]. □
Appendix B: \(\mathbb{G}\)-localisation versus \(\mathbb{F}\)-localisation
We now present results which are important for the proofs of Sect. 5.3, and are the most innovative results of the appendix.
Lemma B.1
The following assertions hold:
(a) If \(H^{\mathbb{G}}\) is a \(\widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{G})\)-measurable functional, then there exist a \(\widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional \(H^{\mathbb{F}}\) and a \(\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}_{+})\otimes \widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional \(K^{\mathbb{F}}: {\mathbb{R}}_{+}\times \Omega \times {\mathbb{R}}_{+} \times {\mathbb{R}}^{d} \rightarrow \mathbb{R}\) such that
(b) If furthermore \(H^{\mathbb{G}}>0\) (respectively \(H^{\mathbb{G}}\leq 1\)), then we can choose \(H^{\mathbb{F}}>0\) (respectively \(H^{\mathbb{F}}\leq 1\)).
(c) If \(H^{\mathbb{G}}\) is an \(\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathbb{G})\)-measurable functional, then there exist an \(\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathbb{G})\)-measurable functional \(H^{(1)}(\omega ,t,x)\), a \(\widetilde{\mathrm{Prog}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional \(H^{(2)}(\omega ,t,x)\), and a \(\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}_{+})\otimes \widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional \(H^{(3)}(v,\omega ,t,x)\) such that
If furthermore \(0< H^{\mathbb{G}}\) (respectively \(H^{\mathbb{G}}\leq 1\)), then all \(H^{(i)}\) can be chosen such that \(0< H^{(i)}\) (respectively \(H^{(i)}\leq 1\)), \(i=1,2,3\).
(d) For any \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping time \(T\) and any positive \(\mathcal{G}_{T}\)-measurable random variable \(Y^{\mathbb{G}}\), there exist two positive \(\mathcal{F}_{T}\)-measurable random variables \(Y^{(1)}\) and \(Y^{(2)}\) satisfying
Proof
Both (a) and (c) follow directly from mimicking Jeulin (see [25, Lemma 4.4 (b) and Proposition 5.3 (b), respectively]), and their proofs are omitted. Assertion (d) follows easily from applying (c) to \(H^{\mathbb{G}}:=\ ^{o,\mathbb{G}}(Y^{\mathbb{G}})I_{]\!]0,\tau [\![}\) and \(H^{\mathbb{G}}_{T}=Y^{\mathbb{G}}I_{\{T\leq \tau \}}\). Thus the rest of this proof focuses on (b). Suppose that \(H^{\mathbb{G}}>0\) (resp. \(H^{\mathbb{G}}\leq 1\)). Then thanks to (a), there exists a \(\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}_{+})\otimes \widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional \(H'\) such that \(H^{\mathbb{G}}=H'\) on \(]\!]0,\tau [\![\). This implies that \(]\!]0,\tau [\![\subset \{H'>0\}\) (resp. \(]\!]0,\tau [\![\subset \{H'\leq 1\}\)). By considering \(H^{\mathbb{F}}=(H')^{+}+I_{\{H'\leq 0\}}\) (resp. \(H^{\mathbb{F}}=\min (1, H')\)), (b) follows immediately. □
Proposition B.2
Let \(\Phi _{\alpha }(\cdot )\) be given by (5.8). Then the following hold:
(a) Let \(f\) be a \({\widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{H})}\)-measurable functional. Then
(b) Let \((\sigma ^{\mathbb{G}}_{n})\) be a sequence of \(\mathbb{G}\)-stopping times that increases to \(+\infty \). Then there exists a nondecreasing sequence \((\sigma ^{\mathbb{F}}_{n})_{n\geq 1}\) of \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping times satisfying
and
where \(\Sigma :=\bigcap _{n\geq 1}\{\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}}<\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}\}\) and \(R:=\inf \{t\geq 0: Z_{t}=0\}\).
(c) Let \(V\) be an \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable nondecreasing process with values in \([0,+\infty ]\). Then \(V^{\tau }\in {\mathcal{A}}_{\mathrm{loc}}^{+}(\mathbb{G})\) if and only if \(I_{\{ Z_{-}\geq \delta \}} \hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}V\in {\mathcal{A}}_{\mathrm{loc}}^{+}(\mathbb{F})\) for any \(\delta >0\).
(d) Let \(k\) be a nonnegative \(\widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional. Then \(kI_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{G})\) if and only if for all \(\delta >0\), \(kI_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\widetilde{Z}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) if and only if for any \(\delta >0\), \(kI_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}(Z_{-}+f_{m})\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\).
(e) Let \(f\) be a \(\widetilde{\mathcal{P}}(\mathbb{F})\)-measurable functional. Then the following are equivalent:
(e.1) \(\sqrt{(f-1)^{2}I_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\star \mu } \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{G})\).
(e.2) \(\Phi _{\alpha }(f)I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}{\widetilde{Z}}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) for all \(\delta >0\).
(e.3) \(\Phi _{\alpha }(f)I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}(Z_{-}+f_{m})\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) for all \(\delta >0\).
(f) Let \(\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}\) be an \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable process with values in \([0,+\infty ]\) such that \(P\otimes A\)-a.e., \([\![0,\tau [\![\subset \{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\). Then \(P\otimes A\)-a.e., \(\{Z_{-}>0\}\subset \{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\).
(g) Let \(\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}\) be an \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable process with values in \([0,+\infty ]\) such that \(P\otimes A\)-a.e., \([\![0,\tau [\![\subset \{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}=0\}\). Then \(P\otimes A\)-a.e., \(\{Z_{-}>0\}\subset \{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}=0\}\).
Proof
(a) Put \(W:=(f-1)^{2}\star \mu = W_{1} + W_{2}\) with \(W_{1} := (f-1)^{2}I_{\{|f-1|\leq \alpha \}}\star \mu \), \(W_{2}:= (f-1)^{2}I_{\{|f-1|> \alpha \}}\star \mu \) and \(W_{2}' := |f-1|I_{\{|f-1|>\alpha \}}\star \mu \). Note that
Therefore \(\sqrt{W_{1}}, W_{2}' \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}\) imply that \(\sqrt{W}\) is locally integrable. Conversely, if \(\sqrt{W}\in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}\), then \(\sqrt{W_{1}} \) and \(\sqrt{W_{2}}\) are both locally integrable. Since \(W_{1}\) is locally bounded and has finite variation, \(W_{1}\) is locally integrable. In the following, we focus on the proof of the local integrability of \(W_{2}'\). Denote
It is easy to see that \((\tau _{n})\) increases to infinity and \(V_{-}\leq n\) on the set \([\![0,\tau _{n} [\![\). On the set \(\{\Delta V >0\}\), we have \(\Delta V \geq \alpha ^{2}\). By using the elementary inequality
when \(0\leq x \leq {n}/{\alpha ^{2}}\), we have
and
where \(\beta _{n}:= \sqrt{1 + {n}/{\alpha ^{2}}} - \sqrt{{n}/{\alpha ^{2}}}\). Therefore \(W_{2}' \in (\mathcal{A}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{H}))_{\mathrm{loc}}=\mathcal{A}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{H})\).
(b) Due to [14, XX.75 b)], there exists a sequence of \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping times \((\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F} })\) such that
By putting \(\sigma _{n}:= \sup _{k\leq n} \sigma _{k}^{\mathbb{F}}\), we prove that
or equivalently that \(\{\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}}\wedge \tau < \sigma _{n}\wedge \tau \}\) is negligible. Due to (B.3) and as \((\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{G}})\) is nondecreasing, we get \(\{\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}} < \tau \}= \{\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{G}} < \tau \} \subset \bigcap _{i=1}^{n} \{\sigma _{i}^{\mathbb{G}} =\sigma _{i}^{\mathbb{F}}\} \subset \{\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}}= \sigma _{n}\}\). This implies that \(\{\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}}\wedge \tau < \sigma _{n}\wedge \tau \} = \{ \sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}} < \tau , \sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}}< \sigma _{n}\} =\emptyset \), and the proof of (B.4) is completed. Thus without loss of generality, we assume that the sequence \((\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}})\) is nondecreasing. By taking limits in (B.3), we obtain \(\tau = \sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}} \wedge \tau \) \(P\)-a.s. which is equivalent to \(\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}} \geq \tau \) \(P\)-a.s. Since \({R}\) is the smallest \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping time dominating \(\tau \) a.s., we obtain \(\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}} \geq {R} \geq \tau \) \(P\)-a.s. This completes the proof of (B.1).
On the set \(\Sigma \), it is easy to show that
Then thanks again to (B.3), by taking \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable projections and letting \(n\) go to \(+\infty \), we obtain
Hence (B.2) follows immediately, and the proof of (b) is completed.
(c) Suppose that \(V^{\tau }\in {\mathcal{A}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}}(\mathbb{G})\). Then there exists a sequence \((\sigma ^{\mathbb{G}}_{n})\) of \(\mathbb{G}\)-stopping times increasing to infinity such that \(V^{\tau \wedge \sigma ^{\mathbb{G}}_{n}}\in {\mathcal{A}^{+}}(\mathbb{G}) \). Consider a nondecreasing sequence \((\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}})_{n\geq 1}\) of \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping times satisfying (B.1) and (B.2) (its existence is guaranteed by (b)) and \(\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}:=\sup _{n} \sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}}\). Therefore, for any fixed \(\delta >0\),
or, equivalently, this process is càdlàg predictable with finite values. Thus, it is obvious that proving that the \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable and nondecreasing process
is sufficient to prove its \(\mathbb{F}\)-local integrability. To prove (B.5), we consider the random time \(\tau ^{\delta }\) defined by
Then it is clear that \(I_{[\![\tau ^{\delta },+\infty ]\!]}\hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}W\equiv 0\) and \(P\)-a.s. on \(\{\tau ^{\delta }<+\infty \}\), we have
The proof of (B.5) will be achieved by considering the three sets \(\{\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}} = \infty \}\), \(\Sigma \cap \{\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\) and \(\Sigma ^{c}\cap \{\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\). It is obvious that (B.5) holds on \(\{\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}} = \infty \}\). From (B.2), we deduce that \(\tau ^{\delta }< \sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}\) \(P\)-a.s. on \(\Sigma \cap \{\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\). Since \(W\) is supported on \([\![0, \tau ^{\delta }[\![\), (B.5) follows immediately on the set \(\Sigma \cap \{\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\). Finally, on the set
the sequence \((\sigma _{n}^{\mathbb{F}})\) increases stationarily to \(\sigma _{\infty }^{\mathbb{F}}\), and thus (B.5) holds on this set. This completes the proof of (B.5), and hence \(I_{\{Z_{-} \geq \delta \} }Z_{-}\hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}V\) is locally integrable for any \(\delta >0\).
Conversely, if \(I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}V \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F}) \), there exists a sequence of \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping times \((\tau _{n})_{n\geq 1}\) that increases to infinity and \((I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}V)^{\tau _{n}}\in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}(\mathbb{F}) \). Then
This proves that \(I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}} I_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}V\) is \(\mathbb{G}\)-locally integrable for any \(\delta >0\). Since \(Z_{-}^{-1}I_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\) is \(\mathbb{G}\)-locally bounded, there exists a family of \(\mathbb{G}\)-stopping times \((\tau _{\delta })_{\delta >0}\) that increases to infinity when \(\delta \) decreases to zero, and
This implies that the process \((I_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\hspace{0.5pt}{\mathbf{\cdot}}\hspace{0.5pt}V)^{\tau _{\delta }}\) is \(\mathbb{G}\)-locally integrable, and (c) follows.
(d) Let us first observe the easy fact that \(kI_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{G})\) if and only if \(Z_{-}kI_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\star \nu ^{\mathbb{G}}= kI_{[\![0,\tau [\![}(Z_{-}+f_{m})\star \nu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{G})\). By combining this fact with (c) applied to \(V:= k(Z_{-}+f_{m})I_{\{Z_{-}>0\}}\star \nu \), we deduce that \(kI_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{G})\) if and only if \(k(Z_{-}+f_{m})I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\star \nu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) for any \(\delta >0\), which is equivalent to \(k(Z_{-}+f_{m})I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) for \(\delta >0\). The equivalence between \(k(Z_{-}+f_{m})I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) and \(k{\widetilde{Z}}I_{\{Z_{-}\geq \delta \}}\star \mu \in {\mathcal{A}}^{+}_{\mathrm{loc}}(\mathbb{F})\) follows from
for any \(\mathbb{F}\)-stopping time \(\sigma \). This ends the proof of (d).
(e) The proof of (e) follows from combining (a) and (d).
(f) Suppose that \([\![0,\tau [\![\subset \{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\), or equivalently \(I_{[\![0,\tau [\![}\leq I_{\{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}}\). By taking \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable projections on both sides, we get \(Z_{-}\leq I_{\{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}}\), and hence \(\{Z_{-}>0\}\subset \{\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}<+\infty \}\). This proves (f).
(g) Suppose that \(\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}I_{[\![0,\tau [\![}=0\) \(P\otimes A\)-a.e. Then by taking \(\mathbb{F}\)-predictable projections, we get \(\phi ^{\mathbb{F}}Z_{-}=0\) \(P\otimes A\)-a.e. This proves (f). □
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Aksamit, A., Choulli, T., Deng, J. et al. No-arbitrage up to random horizon for quasi-left-continuous models. Finance Stoch 21, 1103–1139 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-017-0337-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00780-017-0337-3
Keywords
- No unbounded profit with bounded risk
- No arbitrage
- Random horizon
- Informational arbitrage
- Deflators
- Quasi-left-continuous semimartingales
- Progressive enlargement of filtration
- Stochastic calculus