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Prevention and medication of HIV/AIDS: the case of Botswana

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Abstract

In this paper we developed a mathematical model which allows estimating and projecting the effects of prevention and treatment programs on the total population size, HIV-induced deaths, and life expectancies. Considering only the female population we project the changes of the demographic developments and the situation of HIV/AIDS for Botswana up to 2060. Our mathematical model is used to project the female population development considering their age-structure. Treatment programs are included through selecting a price for medication (or giving it for free). Prevention programs consist of two parts: school-based programs which try to change risky behavior and instantaneous prevention (e.g., free condoms) which has only a short-time effect on the infection risk. The main conclusions drawn from our results are that prevention-only programs always yield the fastest decrease in HIV/AIDS prevalence. Adding a medication program reduces the efficiency of the prevention interventions regarding prevalence, but it reduces the number of HIV-induced deaths and increases life expectancies.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Business Studies, University of Vienna, Brünner Strasse 72, 1210, Vienna, Austria

    Christian Almeder

  2. Institute for Mathematical Methods in Economics, Vienna University of Technology, Argentinierstr. 8/105-4, 1040, Vienna, Austria

    Gustav Feichtinger & Vladimir M. Veliov

  3. Department of Economics, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, 11794-4384, USA

    Warren C. Sanderson

  4. Institute of Mathematics and Informatics, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria

    Vladimir M. Veliov

Authors
  1. Christian Almeder
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  2. Gustav Feichtinger
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  3. Warren C. Sanderson
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  4. Vladimir M. Veliov
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Gustav Feichtinger.

Additional information

This research was partly financed by the Austrian Science Foundation (FWF) under grant No P18161-N13.

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Almeder, C., Feichtinger, G., Sanderson, W.C. et al. Prevention and medication of HIV/AIDS: the case of Botswana. cent.eur.j.oper.res. 15, 47–61 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-006-0018-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10100-006-0018-3

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