Skip to main content
Log in

The accuracy of meta-metacognitive judgments: regulating the realism of confidence

  • Research Report
  • Published:
Cognitive Processing Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Can people improve the realism of their confidence judgments about the correctness of their episodic memory reports by deselecting the least realistic judgments? An assumption of Koriat and Goldsmith’s (Psychol Rev 103:490–517, 1996) model is that confidence judgments regulate the reporting of memory reports. We tested whether this assumption generalizes to the regulation of the realism (accuracy) of confidence judgments. In two experiments, 270 adults in separate conditions answered 50 recognition and recall questions about the contents of a just-seen video. After each answer, they made confidence judgments about the answer’s correctness. In Experiment 1, the participants in the recognition conditions significantly increased their absolute bias when they excluded 15 questions. In Experiment 2, the participants in the recall condition significantly improved their calibration. The results indicate that recall, more than recognition, offers valid cues for participants to increase the realism of their report. However, the effects were small with only weak support for the conclusion that people have some ability to regulate the realism in their confidence judgments.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

References

  • Allwood CM, Granhag PA, Johansson M (2003) Increased realism in eyewitness confidence judgements: the effect of dyadic collaboration. J Appl Psychol 17:545–561

    Google Scholar 

  • Bakeman R (2005) Recommended effect size statistics for repeated measures designs. Behav Res Methods 37:379–384

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Cutler BL, Penrod SD, Stuve TE (1988) Juror decision making in eyewitness identification cases. Law Human Behav 12:41–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunlosky J, Serra MJ, Matvey G, Rawson KA (2005) Second-order judgments about judgments of learning. J Gen Psychol 132:335–346

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischhoff B (1982) Debiasing. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (eds) Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, pp 422–444

    Google Scholar 

  • Flavell JH, Miller SA, Miller PH (1993) Cognitive development, 3rd edn. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffin D, Brenner L (2004) Perspectives on probability judgment calibration. In: Koehler DJ, Harvey N (eds) Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making. Blackwell Oxford, UK, pp 177–198

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Kelley CM, Lindsay DS (1993) Remembering mistaken for knowing: ease of retrieval as a basis for confidence in answers to general knowledge questions. J Mem Lang 32:1–24

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Koriat A, Goldsmith M (1996) Monitoring and control processes in the strategic regulation of memory accuracy. Psychol Rev 103:490–517

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Koriat A, Goldsmith M, Schneider W, Nakash-Dura M (2001) The credibility of children’s testimony: can children control the accuracy of their memory reports? J Exp Child Psychol 79:405–437

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Leippe MR, Eisenstadt D (2007) Eyewitness confidence and the confidence-accuracy relationship in memory for people. In: Lindsay RCL, Ross DF, Read JD, Toglia MP (eds) Handbook of eyewitness psychology, vol 2. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates Publishers, Mahwah, NJ, pp 377–425

    Google Scholar 

  • Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B (1980) Training for calibration. Organ Behav Hum Perform 26:149–171

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lichtenstein S, Fischhoff B, Phillips LD (1982) Calibration of probabilities. In: Kahneman D, Slovic P, Tversky A (eds) Judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 306–334

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller TM, Geraci L (2011) Unskilled but aware: reinterpreting overconfidence in low-performing students. J Exp Psychol Learn 37:502–506

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nelson TO, Dunlosky J (1991) When people’s judgments of learning (JOLs) are extremely accurate at predicting subsequent recall: the “delayed-JOL effect.”. Psychol Sci 2:267–270

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oberauer K, Schulze R, Wilhelm O, Süß H-M (2005) Working memory and intelligence—their correlation and their relation: comment on Ackerman, Beier, and Boyle (2005). Psychol Bull 131:61–65

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Olejnik S, Algina J (2003) Generalized eta and omega squared statistics: measures of effect size for some common research designs. Psychol Methods 8:434–447

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Raaijmakers JGW, Shiffrin RM (1992) Models for recall and recognition. Annu Rev Psychol 43:205–234

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson MD, Johnson JT (1996) Recall memory, recognition memory, and the eyewitness confidence-accuracy correlation. J Appl Psychol 81:587–594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robinson MD, Johnson JT, Herndon F (1997) Reaction time and assessments of cognitive effort as predictors of eyewitness memory accuracy and confidence. J Appl Psychol 82:416–425

    Article  PubMed  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Sieck WR, Merkle EC, Van Zandt T (2007) Option fixation: a cognitive contributor to overconfidence. Organ Behav Hum Dec 103:68–83

    Google Scholar 

  • Stankov L, Lee J, Paek I (2009) Realism of confidence judgments. Eur J Psychol Assess 25:123–130

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Overschelde JP, Nelson TO (2006) Delayed judgments of learning cause both a decrease in absolute accuracy (calibration) and an increase in relative accuracy (resolution). Mem Cognit 34(7):1527–1538

    Article  PubMed  Google Scholar 

  • Yates JF (1994) Subjective probability accuracy analysis. In: Wright GA, Ayton P (eds) Subjective probability. Wiley, New York, NY, pp 381–410

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This project was funded by the Swedish Research Council (VR) with a grant to the second author.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sandra Buratti.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Buratti, S., Allwood, C.M. The accuracy of meta-metacognitive judgments: regulating the realism of confidence. Cogn Process 13, 243–253 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10339-012-0440-5

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10339-012-0440-5

Keywords

Navigation