Abstract
The paper analyzes the implications of extreme events on the proper choice of discounting. Any discounting with constant or declining rates can be linked to random “stopping time” events, which define the internal discount-related horizons of evaluations. Conversely, any stopping time induces a discounting, in particular, with the standard discount rates. The expected duration of the stopping time horizon for discount rates obtained from capital markets does not exceed a few decades and, as such, these rates may significantly underestimate the net benefits of long-term decisions. The alternative undiscounted stopping time criterion allows to induce social discounting focusing on arrival times of potential extreme events rather then horizons of market interests. Induced discount rates are conditional on the degree of social commitment to mitigate risk. In general, extreme events affect these rates, which alter the optimal mitigation efforts that, in turn, change events. The use of undiscounted stopping time criteria requires stochastic optimisation methods.
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Ermoliev, Y., Ermolieva, T., Fischer, G. et al. Extreme events, discounting and stochastic optimization. Ann Oper Res 177, 9–19 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-009-0606-4