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Fuzzy-probabilistic PERT

  • CLAIO 2014
  • Published:
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Abstract

Using PERT (Program evaluation and review technique), one assumes that the time required to carry out the individual tasks in a project can be approximated using a beta distribution. It is assumed that the parameters of these distributions (the minimum, maximum and most likely times) are estimated by experts in accordance with the properties of the beta distribution. However, this is not always the case. This article shows how one may analyse the time required to carry out a task. Two approaches to describing uncertainty regarding the duration of tasks are used: probabilistic and fuzzy. This article proposes a mixture of a beta probability distribution with a generative probability distribution to describe the duration of a task. An illustrative examples are given.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Computer Science and Management, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Smoluchowskiego 25, 50-372, Wroclaw, Poland

    Barbara Gładysz

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  1. Barbara Gładysz
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Correspondence to Barbara Gładysz.

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Gładysz, B. Fuzzy-probabilistic PERT. Ann Oper Res 258, 437–452 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-016-2315-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-016-2315-0

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