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A risk analytics model for strategic workforce planning: readiness of enlisted military personnel

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Abstract

We develop a dynamic stochastic model of military workforce planning that incorporates uncertainties about personnel gains and losses across ranks. We then apply it to determine the probability of not meeting required targets as well as the resulting shortages and overages in the short, medium, and long terms along with the evaluation of policies to mitigate these risks. Our model allows decision makers to adjust recruiting and training practices to minimize the risk of not meeting target personnel levels as well as to value retention and reenlistment policies by calculating the expected marginal value of retaining additional service members. Moreover, it allows us to create a penalty function to optimize recruiting and training levels. The outcome is a tool to evaluate and ensure comprehensive force readiness.

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Notes

  1. Corporal is a lateral promotion; it is not a promotion from E-3.

  2. It is important to note that Army regulations are often changing and in flux, with the specific structure given in the model taken as a reasonable approximation at the time of publication; however, the model itself can easily be revised to accommodate future changes to the Army’s promotion pathways.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Economics, Finance, and Quantitative Analysis, Kennesaw State University, 560 Parliament Garden Way, Kennesaw, GA, 30144, USA

    Leo MacDonald & Jomon Aliyas Paul

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  1. Leo MacDonald
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  2. Jomon Aliyas Paul
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Correspondence to Leo MacDonald.

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Appendix A

Appendix A

See Fig. 2.

Fig. 2
figure 2figure 2

Comparison of variance estimates for A rank E-2, B rank E-3, and C rank E-5

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MacDonald, L., Paul, J.A. A risk analytics model for strategic workforce planning: readiness of enlisted military personnel. Ann Oper Res 338, 513–533 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-023-05567-0

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