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A distributionally robust risk-aware approach to chance constrained sustainable development model under unknown distribution

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Abstract

This paper presents a novel distributionally robust risk-aware approach that aims to tackle the increasingly complex sustainable development model by taking into account job creation and economic growth. To alleviate the inherent conservatism in existing robust sustainable development model, we develop a distributionally robust chance constrained sustainable development model. This innovative approach, incorporating adjustable value-at-risk measures, offers a formal theoretical guarantee for sustainable economic development. However, its practical implementation presents considerable difficulty due to the non-convex nature of the optimization problem associated with the sustainable development model. Moreover, acquiring accurate probability distribution functions for uncertainties in the sustainable development model poses a challenge due to the limited availability of historical data. To address these challenges, we propose a distributionally robust risk-aware reformulated method that approximates the chance constrained sustainable development model as a semidefinite programming problem, taking into account the mean and variance of uncertainties. This operational strategy provides decision-makers with a robust market-optimal solution. A comparative analysis reveals that our proposed method outperforms alternative approaches by achieving a 5% higher GDP within the sustainable development model, underscoring its strong potential as a reliable and secure decision-making tool for the next generation of sustainable development.

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Data Availability and Access

The datasets are publicly available online through their reference sources in the manuscript.

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Acknowledgements

No funding was received to assist with the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Xindi Wang:Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Formal analysis, Writing-Original Draft. Zeshui Xu:Supervision,Writing-Review & Editing. Bo Li: Language polishing, Writing-Review & Editing.

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Correspondence to Zeshui Xu.

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Wang, X., Xu, Z. & Li, B. A distributionally robust risk-aware approach to chance constrained sustainable development model under unknown distribution. Appl Intell 55, 94 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10489-024-05884-2

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