If sociological game theory is not to end up as an artificial exercise, … ,
it is absolutely essential that the beliefs, ideas and experiences
of the actors themselves are moved onto center stage
R. Swedberg 2001, p. 325
Abstract
This paper presents a synthetic approach for generating role playing simulation games intended to support analysts (and trainees) interested in testing alternative competing courses of action (operations) and discovering what effects they are likely to precipitate in potential ethno-political conflict situations. Simulated leaders and followers capable of playing these games are implemented in a cognitive modeling framework, called PMFserv, which covers value systems, personality and cultural factors, emotions, relationships, perception, stress/coping style and decision making. Of direct interest, as Sect. 1.1 explains, is mathematical representation and synthesis of best-of-breed behavioral science models within this framework to reduce dimensionality and to improve the realism and internal validity of the agent implementations. Sections 2 and 3 present this for leader profiling instruments and group membership decision-making, respectively. Section 4 serves as an existence proof that the framework has generated several training and analysis tools, and Sect. 5 concludes with lessons learned. Part II turns to the question of assessment of the synthesis and its usage in course of action studies.
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Silverman, B.G., Bharathy, G., Nye, B. et al. Modeling factions for “effects based operations”: part I—leaders and followers. Comput Math Organiz Theor 13, 379–406 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-007-9017-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10588-007-9017-8