Skip to main content
Springer Nature Link
Log in

Futures studies in Iran broadcasting, a system dynamic modeling approach

  • Published:
Multimedia Tools and Applications Aims and scope Submit manuscript

A Correction to this article was published on 08 October 2022

This article has been updated

Abstract

If anything, our modern life, especially since the turn of the twenty-first century, is characterized by new forms of entertainment. One such entertainment is the radio and TV, which not only provides viewers with the latest news but also entertains them with all kinds of programs and shows. It is not for nothing that broadcasting is considered an essential aspect of any society. On the other hand, the advent of the internet and subsequently social media platforms has caused broadcasters to lose their monopoly and have to jockey for a place in people’s leisure time. The situation has been exacerbated by the evolution of broadcasting from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, and policy-heavy structures that must explore and discern the future to remain competitive. Against this backdrop, futures studies which is the scientific, systematic, and formal investigation of likely, desirable, and possible future developments, − can help cushion the blow against stronger competitors. The main tools of futures studies are modeling and simulation. Therefore, this study aims to anticipate the possible alternative scenarios to describe plans for the future of the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) by using system dynamics modeling to identify and develop alternative futures.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15
Fig. 16
Fig. 17
Fig. 18
Fig. 19
Fig. 20
Fig. 21
Fig. 22
Fig. 23
Fig. 24
Fig. 25
Fig. 26
Fig. 27
Fig. 28
Fig. 29
Fig. 30
Fig. 31
Fig. 32
Fig. 33
Fig. 34
Fig. 35
Fig. 36
Fig. 37
Fig. 38
Fig. 39
Fig. 40
Fig. 41
Fig. 42
Fig. 43
Fig. 44
Fig. 45

Similar content being viewed by others

Change history

References

  1. Ahmad S, Tahar R, Muhammad-Sukki F, Munir A, Rahim R (2016) Application of system dynamics approach in electricity sector modelling: a review. Renew Sust Energ Rev 56:29–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Akbarzade Jahromi S (2017) Post-Television in Iran: Islamic Republic of Iran broadcasting (IRIB) response to media convergence. New Media Studies, 41–85

  3. Alavivafa S (2017) Strategic challenges and challenges of the National Media on the horizon 1404. Commun Res, 31–64

  4. Alstyne V (2011) 2020 Media Futures. Stategic Innovation Lab, Toronto

    Google Scholar 

  5. Aparicio S, Urbano D, Gómez D (2016) The role of innovative entrepreneurship within Colombian business cycle scenarios: a system dynamics approach. Futures 81:130–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Brose A, Fügenschuh A, Gausemeier P, Vier I (2013) A system dynamic enhancement for the scenario technique. Konrad-Zuse-Zentrum für Informationstechnik Berlin, Berlin

    Google Scholar 

  7. Brown D, Beaney P, Doherty D, Edge S (2015) The future of film and television: foresight report 2012 to 2022. Dundalk institute of technology and university of the west of Scotland, London

    Google Scholar 

  8. Chen H, Yu J, Wakeland W (2016) Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation. Mechanical & Industrial Engineering, Generating technology development paths to the desired future through system dynamics modeling and simulation

  9. Daymon C, Foster R (2003) FUTURE POSSIBILITIES:a scenario analysis study of British television. Media in Transition 3 Conference MIT Boston

  10. Eghbal Doust M, Salavatian S (2014) Futurology of technological trends affecting television. conference on FuturesStudies, Tehran

    Google Scholar 

  11. Forrest J (1998) System dynamics, alternative futures, and scenarios. International Conference of The System Dynamics Society

  12. Forrester J (1991) System dynamics and the lessons of 35 years. University of Southern California USA

  13. Hirsch B, Levine GR, Lin Miller R (2007) Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives. Am J Community Psychol 39:239–253

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Horton B (2005) Vision 20/20: future scenarios forthe communications industry –implications for regulation. Australian Communications Authority, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  15. Khojasteh M, Zare Mehrjerdi Y (2017) A System Dynamic Model For Effectiveness On The Broadcasting Viewers And Their Satisfaction And Loyalty (The Case: Irib Education Channel). ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE MANAGEMENT

  16. Markakis E, Pallis E, Skianis C, Zacharopoulos V (2011) Exploiting peer-to-peer technology for network andresource management in interactive broadcasting environments. Global Telecommunications Conference

  17. Markakis E, Pallis E, Skianis C, Zacharopoulos V (2012) Optimised network resource exploitation in interactive broadcasting environments via P2P constellations. International Conference on Computing, Networking and Communications (ICNC)

  18. Markakis E, Sideris A, Mast G, Polichronakis N, Pallis E, Zacharopoulos V. (2018) Dynamic differentiated services provision in a backhaul DVB/IP networking environment. International conference on telecommunications and multimedia (TEMU2008), 16–18

  19. Moezzi-Madani N, Holisaz H, Fakhraie S (2006) Digital Audio Broadcasting System Modeling and Hardware Implementation. IEEE Asia Pacific Conference on Circuits and Systems

  20. Namgi K, Lee B-D (2019) Analysis and improvement of MPEG-DASH-based internet live broadcasting Services in Real-world Environments. KSII transactions on internet and information systems (TIIS), 2544-2557

  21. Olson LD (2003) Software process simulation. Encyclopedia of Information Systems

  22. Pejić-Bach M, Čerić V (2007) Developing system dynamics models with step by step approach. J Inform Organiz Sci, 171–185

  23. Randall R, Fahey L (1997) Learning from the future: competitive foresight scenarios. Wiley, John & Sons, Incorporated

  24. Rasooli M (2002) Audience of satellite televisions. Media Quarterly 52:114–119

    Google Scholar 

  25. Richardson G, Otto P (2008) Application of system dynamics in marketing. J Bus Res 61:1099–1101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Richmond B, Peterson S (2001) An introduction to systems thinking. High Performance Systems, Lebanon

    Google Scholar 

  27. Sadeghi F (2013) The failure of monopoly. Iran Publications, Tehran

    Google Scholar 

  28. Sahay P (2015) A strategic approach to talent acquisition. Pradeep Sahay

  29. Schmitt Olabisi L, Kapuscinski RA, Johnson AK, Reich BP, Stenquist B (2010) Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future : Lessons from Minnesota 2050. sustainability

  30. Shahabi M, Jahangardi M (2008) The social origins of association_ patterns of Tehrani audiences with the Persian speaking satellite channels. Iranian J Cultural Res:23–55

  31. Sharifi S, Khajeheian D, Samadi Mahhadi K (2019) Corporate media entrepreneurship in public service broadcasts: an exploratory study of IRIB use of external innovations. AD-minister-Escuela de Administración de la Universidad EAFIT, 101–118

  32. Shi L, Obregon E, Sung K (2013) CellTV - on the benefit of TV distribution over cellular networks: a case study. IEEE Trans Broadcast:73–84

  33. Sterling Groff J (2013) Dynamic systems modeling in Educational System Design & Policy. New Approaches in educational research

  34. Sterman J (2000) Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  35. Talebian S (2017) The future of broadcasting media policy in Iran. Faculty of Social Sciences: University of Helsinki

  36. Wang X (2010) Evaluation research on the coordinated development of real estateand economy in Harbin. Chinese.: Northeast Forestry University

  37. Yuan H, Shen L, Hao J, Lu W (2011) A model for cost-benefit analysis of construction and demolition waste management throughout the waste chain. Resources, Conservation and Recycling,, 604–612

  38. Zhang Z, Zhao Y, Song W (2014) Development tendency analysisand evaluation of the water ecological carrying capacity in the Siping area ofJilin province in China based on system dynamics and analytic hierarchyprocess. Ecological modelling, 9–21

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Tehran Science and Research Branch, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Daneshgah Blvd, Simon Bulivar Blvd, Tehran, Iran

    Azadeh Sohrabinejad & Farzad Movahedi Sobhani

  2. Islamic azadeh University south Tehran Branch, No. 223, Headquarter of Islamic Azad University, South Tehran Branch, ZIP area 11, Azarshahr Street, North Iranshahr Street, Karimkhan-e-Zand Avenue, Tehran, Iran

    Kiamars Fathi Hafshajani

Authors
  1. Azadeh Sohrabinejad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Kiamars Fathi Hafshajani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Farzad Movahedi Sobhani
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Azadeh Sohrabinejad.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

The original online version of this article was revised: The author name “Farzad Movahedi Sobhani” was incorrectly spelled as “Farzad Movahdi Sobhani”.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Sohrabinejad, A., Hafshajani, K.F. & Sobhani, F.M. Futures studies in Iran broadcasting, a system dynamic modeling approach. Multimed Tools Appl 82, 1–29 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-022-12047-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11042-022-12047-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation