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HFMD Cases Prediction Using Transfer One-Step-Ahead Learning

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Abstract

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a susceptible viral infectious disease to infants and children, which led to millions of cases and hundreds of deaths annually in China. Existing predictive methods commonly learn the development patterns from historical observations. However, almost all these methods are neglect the immediate impact of exogenous factors on HFMD transmission. To solve the limitation, we consider the approximately unidirectional influences from temperature to confirmed cases and then propose a transfer one-step-ahead learning (Tr-OSH) method to establish their association. The Tr-OSH method first extract the unidirectional representation from temperature observations, and subsequently transfer the obtained representation for HFMD cases prediction. Moreover, we notice the independent correlation of each time step and period, and generate the independent representation by the relevance to upcoming values. Intensive experiments on real-world HFMD datasets demonstrate that our Tr-OSH method much efficaciously improves prediction accuracy.

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Data Availability

The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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  2. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (CN) (Nos. 2021J01857 and 2021J01859). The authors would like to thank the editor and anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments in improving the manuscript quality.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Electronic Information, Guangxi University for Nationalities, Daxue East Road 188, Nanning, 530006, China

    Yaohui Huang & Zhenkun Lu

  2. Computer Engineering College, Jimei University, Yinjiang Road 185, Xiamen, 361021, China

    Ziyang Wang & Zhijin Wang

  3. School of Science, Jimei University, Yinjiang Road 185, Xiamen, 361021, China

    Peisong Zhang

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Correspondence to Zhenkun Lu or Zhijin Wang.

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Huang, Y., Zhang, P., Wang, Z. et al. HFMD Cases Prediction Using Transfer One-Step-Ahead Learning. Neural Process Lett 55, 2321–2339 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11063-022-10795-9

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