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A PDE-informed optimization algorithm for river flow predictions

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Abstract

An optimization-based tool for flow predictions in natural rivers is introduced assuming that some physical characteristics of a river within a spatial-time domain \([x_{\min }, x_{\max }] \times [t_{\min }, t_{\textrm{today}}]\) are known. In particular, it is assumed that the bed elevation and width of the river are known at a finite number of stations in \([x_{\min }, x_{\max }]\) and that the flow-rate at \(x=x_{\min }\) is known for a finite number of time instants in \([t_{\min },t_{\textrm{today}}]\). Using these data, given \(t_{\textrm{future}} > t_{\textrm{today}}\) and a forecast of the flow-rate at \(x=x_{\min }\) and \(t=t_{\textrm{future}}\), a regression-based algorithm informed by partial differential equations produces predictions for all state variables (water elevation, depth, transversal wetted area, and flow-rate) for all \(x \in [x_{\min }, x_{\max }]\) and \(t=t_{\textrm{future}}\). The algorithm proceeds by solving a constrained optimization problem that takes into account the available data and the fulfillment of Saint-Venant equations for one-dimensional channels. The effectiveness of this approach is corroborated with flow predictions of a natural river.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Funding

This work was supported by FAPESP (grants 2013/07375-0, 2016/01860-1, and 2018/24293-0) and CNPq (grants 302538/2019-4 and 302682/2019-8).

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The two authors of this work worked together and equally in all its stages.

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Correspondence to E. G. Birgin.

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The authors declare no competing interests. Author J. M. Martínez is a member of the journal’s editorial board.

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Birgin, E.G., Martínez, J.M. A PDE-informed optimization algorithm for river flow predictions. Numer Algor 96, 289–304 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11075-023-01647-1

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