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Forecasting the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan through S-curve model analysis

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Abstract

Patents contain much significant technical information which can serve as an indicator of technological and economical development. This study attempts to forecast the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan by use of the patent data obtained from the Japan Patent Office. The study applies linear regression to the patent data using three S-curve models developed by Loglet Lab, Pearl, and Gompertz individually. Various parameters inherent to each model including the least sum of modulus error and the least mean of square error of the model are analyzed. The most appropriate model for measuring the inflection point, the growth and the saturation time of the technique is described. Based on the Gompertz model analysis, this study finds that the biped robot walking technique will continue to develop for several decades in Japan and the saturation period is estimated to be around the year 2079–2082. This finding can help related researchers and managers in the robot field to foresee the development trend of the biped robot walking technique in this century.

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Notes

  1. http://jara.jp/index.html. Retrieved on August 12, 2007.

  2. http://www.jpo.go.jp/indexj.htm. Retrieved on August 12, 2007.

  3. http://www.honda.co.jp/ASIMO. Retrieved on August 12, 2007.

  4. http://www.watch.impress.co.jp/pC/docs/2002/0319/sony3.htm. Retrieved on August 12, 2007.

  5. http://phe.rockefeller.edu/LogletLab/. Retrieved on August 12, 2007.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Information Technology and Communication, Tungnan University, No. 152, Sec. 3, Pei-Shen Rd., Shenken, Taipei, 222, Taiwan

    Chen-Yuan Liu

  2. Department of Electronic Engineering, Tungnan University, Shenken, Taipei, Taiwan

    Jhen-Cheng Wang

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  1. Chen-Yuan Liu
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  2. Jhen-Cheng Wang
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Correspondence to Chen-Yuan Liu.

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Liu, CY., Wang, JC. Forecasting the development of the biped robot walking technique in Japan through S-curve model analysis. Scientometrics 82, 21–36 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0055-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-009-0055-5

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