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Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009)

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Abstract

This article analyses scientific growth time series using data for Spanish doctoral theses from 1848 to 2009, retrieved from national databases and an in-depth archive search. Data are classified into subseries by historical periods. The analytical techniques employed range from visual analysis of deterministic graphs to curve-fitting with exponential smoothing and AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average models. Forecasts are made using the best model. The main finding is that Spanish output of doctoral theses appears to fit a quasi-logistic growth model in line with Price’s predictions. An additional control variable termed year-on-year General Welfare is shown to modulate scientific growth, especially in the historical period from 1899 to 1939.

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Notes

  1. The data shown in the Table 1 below include the following variables: date, number of theses and dummy variable (general welfare). All analyses were conducted using the data in Table 1.

  2. Two features characterise Spanish theses during the Ancien Regime; they had to be written in Latin and be approved (nihil obstat: ‘nothing hinders’) by the all-powerful Court of Inquisition; it was, moreover, an expensive, ceremonial and ostentatious ritual in which the newly-created doctor was forced to spend huge amounts of money on banquets, speeches, civic and religious processions and ruinous displays of generosity culminating in a bullfight.

  3. In 1877, Santiago Ramón y Cajal, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1906, submitted his thesis: Patogenia de la inflamación—Inflammation pathogeny.

  4. The Junta de Ampliación de Estudios (Scientific Studies and Research Expansion Board) was a body founded in 1907 with the aim of promoting scientific research and education in Spain, in an attempt to emulate European models. Its influence, in terms of arranging exchanges with Europe and sending scientists to Latin America, was notable. The institution was modified in 1939 with the advent of General Franco’s regime.

  5. In 1934, Severo Ochoa de Albornoz, the Spanish-born scientist and naturalised citizen of the USA, who was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1959, submitted his thesis: Los fenómenos químicos y energéticos de la contracción muscular en la insuficiencia adrenal experimental (Chemical and energetic phenomena of muscle contraction in experimental adrenal failure).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Research Methods in Education, University of Granada, Campus de Cartuja, Granada, 18071, Spain

    Antonio Fernández-Cano

  2. Department of Mathematics, University of Córdoba, Calle Alfonso XIII, 13, Córdoba, 14071, Spain

    Manuel Torralbo

  3. Department of Didactics, University of Murcia, Campus de Espinardo, Murcia, 28071, Spain

    Mónica Vallejo

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  1. Antonio Fernández-Cano
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Correspondence to Antonio Fernández-Cano.

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Fernández-Cano, A., Torralbo, M. & Vallejo, M. Time series of scientific growth in Spanish doctoral theses (1848–2009). Scientometrics 91, 15–36 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-011-0572-x

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