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Forecasting the trend of international scientific collaboration

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Abstract

The study demonstrates an integrated method of forecasting the trend of a country’s publications. In this context the paper examines international collaboration in a country’s overall publication and forecasts its future trend. The integrated method is based on regression and scaling relationship. India is taken as a case study for this examination. The study shows some interesting features of India’s publication pattern based on time-series data. One observes exponential nature of her publication growth from 2002 onwards. International collaboration also exhibits exponential growth roughly from the same period. Also one observes the faster growth of international collaborative papers than the overall growth of research papers. The study predicts values of number of internationally collaborative papers for the years 2015 and 2020. The robustness of the method is also demonstrated.

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Acknowledgments

This study comes from the project undertaken by Mr Varun Shrivats during internship at CSIR-NISTADS. The project was part of the overall study of analysing India’s scientific competency led by Dr Sujit Bhattacharya. We express our thanks to CSIR-NISTADS and Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani, Goa campus for providing the opportunity to undertake this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CSIR-National Institute of Science Technology and Development Studies, K.S. Krishnan Marg, Pusa Campus, New Delhi, 110012, India

    S. Varun Shrivats & Sujit Bhattacharya

  2. Birla Institute of Technology and Science Pilani K.K. Birla Goa Campus, Zuarinagar, Goa, 403726, India

    S. Varun Shrivats

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  1. S. Varun Shrivats
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  2. Sujit Bhattacharya
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Correspondence to Sujit Bhattacharya.

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Varun Shrivats, S., Bhattacharya, S. Forecasting the trend of international scientific collaboration. Scientometrics 101, 1941–1954 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-014-1364-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11192-014-1364-x

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