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Power consumption forecast model using ensemble learning for smart grid

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Abstract

The prediction of power consumption of smart meters plays a vital role in power distribution and management in the smart grid, which depends on real-time and historical data. However, existing schemes do not meet the standard requirements of the prediction, are difficult to deploy, and do not achieve the desired accuracy. In this paper, an Ensemble learning based power consumption prediction model (EPC-PM) is proposed for the smart meter. Ensemble learning calculates the weights of base predictors and the voting engine selects the suitable predictor that has high accuracy and generates the final predicted output. The performance of base predictors is considered for the next iterations of prediction. Further, the predicted output can be used for power distribution and management by the smart grid. Experimental and statistical analysis shows that EPC-PM is more efficient than existing state-of-the-art works in terms of performance. The proposed EPC-PM improves the root mean square error, normalized root mean square error, and mean absolute error up to 0.2467, 13.45, and 0.1761, respectively, over the UMass Smart* dataset.

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The data is available upon reasonable request to the corresponding authors.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra, India for financially supporting this research work.

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Author notes

  1. Jatinder Kumar, Rishabh Gupta, Deepika Saxena and Ashutosh Kumar Singh have contributed equally.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Computer Applications, National Institute of Technology, Kurukshetra, Haryana, 136119, India

    Jatinder Kumar, Rishabh Gupta, Deepika Saxena & Ashutosh Kumar Singh

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  1. Jatinder Kumar
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  2. Rishabh Gupta
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  3. Deepika Saxena
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  4. Ashutosh Kumar Singh
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Contributions

All the authors have discussed and constructed the ideas, designed the Virtual Machine Placement framework, and wrote the paper together.

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Correspondence to Jatinder Kumar.

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Kumar, J., Gupta, R., Saxena, D. et al. Power consumption forecast model using ensemble learning for smart grid. J Supercomput 79, 11007–11028 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11227-023-05096-4

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