Abstract
External world skeptics are typically opposed to admitting as evidence anything that goes beyond the purely phenomenal, and equally typically, they disown the use of rules of inference that might enable one to move from premises about the phenomenal alone to a conclusion about the external world. This seems to bar any a posteriori resolution of the skepticism debate. This paper argues that the situation is not quite so hopeless, and that an a posteriori resolution of the debate becomes possible once it is recognized that the skeptic holds overly defensive and ill-motivated positions vis-à-vis both evidence and inference, and that more reasonable ones are available. In stating these more reasonable positions, as well as in showing how they make possible an a posteriori resolution of the skepticism debate, the paper draws on the machinery of Bayesian epistemology.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bergmann M. (2004). Epistemic circularity: Malignant and benign. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 69: 709–727
BonJour L., Sosa E. (2003). Epistemic justification. Malden, MA, Blackwell Publishing
Byrne A. (2004). How hard are the sceptical paradoxes? Noûs 38: 299–325
Christensen D. (1983). Glymour on evidential relevance. Philosophy of Science 50: 471–481
Christensen D. (1994). Conservatism in epistemology. Noûs 28: 69–89
Christensen D. (2004). Putting logic in its place. Oxford, Oxford University Press
Cohen S. (1999). Contextualism, skepticism, and the structure of reasons. Philosophical Perspectives, 13: 57–89
Cohen S. (2002). Basic knowledge and the problem of easy knowledge. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 65: 309–329
DeRose K. (1995). Solving the skeptical problem. Philosophical Review 104: 1–52
Douven I. (1999). Inference to the best explanation made coherent. Philosophy of Science (Proceedings) 66: S424–S435
Douven I. (2002). Testing inference to the best explanation. Synthese 130: 355–377
Douven I. (2005a). Evidence, explanation, and the empirical status of scientific realism. Erkenntnis 63: 253–291
Douven I. (2005b). Wouldn’t it be lovely: Explanation and scientific realism. Metascience 14: 338–343
Douven, I. (2007). Underdetermination. In S. Psillos & M. Curd (Eds.), The Routledge companion to the philosophy of science. London: Routledge (in press).
Douven I., Meijs W. (2006). Bootstrap confirmation made quantitative. Synthese 49: 97–132
Douven I., Williamson T. (2006). Generalizing the lottery paradox. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 57: 755–779
Earman J., Glymour C. (1988). What revisions does bootstrap testing need? Philosophy of Science 55: 260–264
Foley R. (1992). The epistemology of belief and the epistemology of degrees of belief. American Philosophical Quarterly 29: 111–124
Gaifman H. (1986). A theory of higher order probabilities. In: Halpern J. (eds) Theoretical aspects of reasoning about knowledge: Proceedings of the 1986 Conference. San Mateo CA, Morgan–Kaufmann, pp. 275–292
Glymour C. (1980). Theory and evidence. Princeton NJ, Princeton University Press
Goldman A. (1988). Empirical knowledge. Berkeley, University of California Press
Graham P. (2007). The theoretical diagnosis of skepticism. Synthese 158: 19–39
Harman G. (1973). Thought. Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press
Horwich P. (1982). Probability and evidence. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
Howson C. (1984). Bayesianism and support by novel facts. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35: 245–251
Howson C. (2000). Hume’s problem: Induction and the justification of belief. Oxford, Clarendon Press
Jeffrey R. (1983). The logic of decision (2nd ed). Chicago, University of Chicago Press
Joyce J. (2004). Bayesianism. In: Mele A.R., Rawling P. (eds) The Oxford handbook of rationality. Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 132–155
Klein P. (1985). The virtues of inconsistency. Monist 68: 105–135
Kyburg H. (1961). Probability and the logic of rational belief. Middletown CT, Wesleyan University Press
Lipton P. (2004). Inference to the best explanation (2nd ed). London, Routledge
Maher P. (1993). Betting on theories. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press
Moore, G. E. (1962). Proof of an external world. Philosophical papers (pp. 126–149). New York: Collier Books.
Pryor J. (2000). The skeptic and the dogmatist. Noûs, 34: 517–549
Pryor J. (2004). What’s wrong with Moore’s argument?. Philosophical Issues 14: 349–378
Ramsey, F. P. (1926). Truth and probability. The foundations of mathematics, 1931 (pp. 156–198). London: Routledge.
Reichenbach H. (1938). Experience and prediction. Chicago, University of Chicago Press
Russell B. (1912). The problems of philosophy. Oxford, Oxford University Press
Sosa E. (1997). Reflective knowledge in the best circles. Journal of Philosophy 94: 410–430
Vahid H. (2004). Varieties of epistemic conservatism. Synthese 141: 97–122
van Fraassen B. (1980). The scientific image. Oxford, Clarendon Press
van Fraassen B. (1983). Theory comparison and relevant evidence. In: Earman J. (eds) Testing scientific theories. Minneapolis, University of Minnesota Press, pp. 27–42
van Fraassen B. (1989). Laws and symmetry. Oxford, Clarendon Press
Vogel J. (1990). Cartesian skepticism and inference to the best explanation. Journal of Philosophy 87: 658–666
Vogel J. (2004). Skeptical arguments. Philosophical Issues 14: 426–455
Vogel J. (2005). The refutation of skepticism. In: Steup M., Sosa E. (eds) Contemporary debates in epistemology. Oxford, Blackwell Publishing, pp. 72–84
Wright C. (1985). Facts and certainty. Proceedings of the British Academy 71: 429–472
Wright C. (1991). Scepticism and dreaming: Imploding the demon. Mind 100: 87–116
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Douven, I. Can the skepticism debate be resolved?. Synthese 168, 23–52 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-008-9311-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-008-9311-0