Abstract
I aim to clarify the relationship between the success of a theory and the truth of that theory. This has been a central issue in the debates between realists and anti-realists. Realists assume that success is a reliable indicator of truth, but the details about the respects in which success is a reliable indicator or test of truth have been largely left to our intuitions. Lewis (Synthese 129:371–380, 2001) provides a clear proposal of how success and truth might be connected, comparing a test of success of our theories to medical tests with low rates of false positives and false negatives. But, contrary to what Lewis claims, I argue that it is not enough for the realist to undercut the claim that success is not a reliable indicator of truth. Rather, the realist must show that our current best theories are likely true. Further, I argue that tests in science are unlike medical tests in a number of important ways.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Carrier M. (1991) What is wrong with the miracle argument?. Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 22(1): 23–36
Dear P. (2001) Revolutionizing the sciences: European knowledge and its ambitions, 1500–1700. Princeton University Press, Princeton
Devitt M. (2008) Realism/anti-realism. In: Psillos S., Curd M. (eds) The Routledge companion to philosophy of science. Routledge, London, pp 224–235
Dreyer J. L. E. (1953) A history of astronomy from Thales to Kepler (2nd ed.). Dover Publications, Inc, New York
Fehrbach, L. (Forthcoming). How the growth of science ends theory change. Synthese.
Frost-Arnold G. (2010) The no-miracles argument for realism: Inference to an unacceptable explanation. Philosophy of Science 77(1): 35–58
Ghins M. (2001) Putnam’s no-miracles argument: A critique. In: Clarke S. P., Lyons T. D. (eds) Recent themes in the philosophy of science. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 121–138
Gingerich, O. (1971). The mercury theory from antiquity to Kepler. Actes, 57–64.
Gingerich O. (1975) Crisis versus aesthetic in the Copernican revolution. Vistas in Astronomy 17: 85–95
Hacking I. (1983) Representing and intervening: Introductory topics in the philosophy of natural science. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Hardin C. L., Rosenberg A. (1981) In defense of convergent realism. Philosophy of Science 49: 604–615
Kitcher P. (1993) Advancement of science: Science without legend, objectivity without illusions. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Kitcher P. (2001) Real realism: The Galilean strategy. Philosophical Review 110(2): 151–197
Kuhn T. S. (1957) The Copernican revolution: Planetary astronomy in the development of western thought. Harvard University Press, Cambridge
Lange M. (2002) Baseball, pessimistic inductions and the turnover fallacy. Analysis 62(4): 281–285
Laudan L. (1984) Science and values: The aims of science and their role in scientific debate. University of California Press, Los Angeles and Berkeley
Lewis P. J. (2001) Why the pessimistic induction is a fallacy. Synthese 129: 371–380
Lipton P. (2004) Inference to the best explanation (2nd ed.). Routledge, London, New York
Magnus P. D., Callender C. (2004) Realist ennui and the base rate fallacy. Philosophy of Science 71: 320–338
Magnus P. D. (2003) Success, truth and the Galilean strategy. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 54: 465–474
Musgrave A. (1988) The ultimate argument for scientific realism. In: Nola R. (eds) Relativism and realism in science. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, pp 252–2289
Nola R. (2008) The optimistic meta-induction and ontological continuity: The case of the electron. In: Soler L., Sankey H., Hoyningen-Huene P. (eds) Rethinking scientific change and theory comparison: Stabilities, ruptures, incommensurabilities. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 159–202
Papineau D. (1996) Introduction. In: Papineau D. (eds) The philosophy of science. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 1–20
Psillos S. (1999) Scientific realism: How science tracks truth. Routledge, London and New York
Putnam H. (1978) Meaning and the moral sciences. Routledge, London
Saatsi J. T. (2005) On the pessimistic induction and two fallacies. Philosophy of Science 72: 1088–1098
Stanford P. K. (2006) Exceeding our grasp: Science, history, and the problem of unconceived alternatives. Oxford University Press, Oxford
Thoren V. E. (1967) An early instance of deductive discovery: Tycho Brahe’s lunar theory. Isis 58(1): 19–36
Van Fraassen B. C. (1980) The scientific image. Clarendon Press, Oxford
Worrall J. (1989) Structural realism: The best of both worlds. Dialectica 43(1-2): 99–124
Worrall J. (1994) How to remain (reasonably) optimistic: Scientific realism and the luminiferous ether. PSA 1994(1): 334–342
Wray K. B. (2007) A selectionist explanation for the success and failures of science. Erkenntnis 67: 81–89
Wray K. B. (2008) The argument from underconsideration as grounds for anti-realism: A defence. International Studies in the Philosophy of Science 22(3): 317–326
Wray K. B. (2010) Selection and predictive success. Erkenntnis 72(3): 365–377
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wray, K.B. Success and truth in the realism/anti-realism debate. Synthese 190, 1719–1729 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-011-9931-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11229-011-9931-7