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A Novel Method for Prediction and Analysis of COVID 19 Transmission Using Machine Learning Based Time Series Models

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Abstract

Coronavirus has been avowed world epidemic by the Organisation Mondiale de la Santé on March 11th 2020. Formerly, numerous investigators have endeavoured to envisage divergent periods of covid-19 malady and their possessions. Several have contemplate the temporal order of the events as primary factor which will contribute to the onset of infectious ailment including flu, influenza, etc. During this research analysis, total daily corroborated infested cases basedprognostication models for the time-series database of India for 30 days are estimated by applying extremely boosted neural network (XBNet). The main objective to introduce this XBNet model is to build an efficient and accurate time series deep learning model. Further, the performance of this model with previously developed time series models including logistic regression, facebook prophet, and sarimax is contrasted. To compare performance, numerous performance parameters like MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and MSE are employed to examine the consequence of model-fitting. This research also shows analysis of coronavirus cases based on three factors namely mortality rate, discharge rate, and the growth factor during different phases of lockdown. Also, projected the prediction of the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases for various time periods. This work presented the forecasts by applying the dataset that was attainable upto August 11th, 2021. The XBNet model showed a 99.27 percent precision accuracy and relatively less MSE, MAPE, RMSE, and MAE than other models. The results confirm superiority of the proposed approach over prevailing approaches.

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Data Availability

The data used to support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon request.

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Funding

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Computing Science and Engineering, Galgotias University, Greater Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Suman Mann

  2. Department of Information Technology, Maharaja Surajmal Institute of Technology, New Delhi, India

    Deepshikha Yadav & Dhruv Rathee

  3. Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Kongu Engineering College (Autonomous), Perundurai, Erode, Tamil Nadu, India

    Suresh Muthusamy

  4. Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Vel Tech Rangarajan Dr.Sagunthala R&D Institute of Science and Technology, Avadi, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

    Om Prava Mishra

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Mann, S., Yadav, D., Muthusamy, S. et al. A Novel Method for Prediction and Analysis of COVID 19 Transmission Using Machine Learning Based Time Series Models. Wireless Pers Commun 133, 1935–1961 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11277-023-10836-z

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