Abstract
In order to deal with fault prediction problems that involve both quantitative and qualitative information for nonlinear complex system, a new fault prediction model is established based on the evidential reasoning (ER) approach, and an optimal learning algorithm for training ER-based prediction model is presented based on the mean square error (MSE) criterion. This prediction model inherits the advantages of ER approach, which can deal with precise data, incomplete data and fuzzy data with nonlinear characteristic. In this model, the input signals transformed using rule based information transformation technique, are aggregated by analytical ER approach, and then the outputs of prediction model are constructed according to the types of system outputs. In addition, two fault decision criteria are defined to conduct fault identification. To overcome the difficulty in determining model parameters accurately and subjectively, a nonlinear optimization model is constructed and the optimal parameters are obtained. Two experimental studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The results show that the established prediction model and the presented parameters optimization methods can deal with fault prediction problem effectively.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Chen M Z, Zhou D H. Fault prediction techniques for dynamic systems. Control Theory Appl, 2003, 20: 819–824
Zhou Z J, Hu C H, Zhou D H. Fault prediction techniques for dynamic systems based on nonanalytical model. Inf Control, 2006, 35: 603–608
Zhou D H, Hu Y Y. Fault diagnosis techniques for dynamic systems. Acta Automat Sin, 2009, 35: 748–758
Lu K S, Saeks R. Failure prediction for an on-line maintenance system in a poisson shock environment. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern, 1979, 9: 356–362
Zhang Z D, Hu S S. A new method for fault prediction of model-unknown nonlinear system. J Franklin Inst, 2008, 345: 136–153
Yang S K. An experiment of state estimation for predictive maintenance using Kalman filter on a DC motor. Reliab Eng Syst Safe, 2002, 75: 103–111
Zhou D H, Frank P M. Strong tracking filtering of nonlinear time-varying stochastic systems with colored noise with application to parameter estimation and empirical robustness analysis. Int J Control, 1996, 65: 295–370
Wang D, Zhou D H, Jin Y H. A strong tracking predictor for nonlinear processes with input time delay. Comput Chem Eng, 2004, 28: 2523–2540
Zhang L, Li X S, Yu J S, et al. A fault prognostic algorithm based on hybrid system particle filter and dual estimation. Acta Aeronaut Et Astronaut Sin, 2009, 30: 1277–1283
Zhang L, Li X S, Yu J S, et al. A fault prognostic algorithm based on Gaussian mixture model particle filter. Acta Aeronaut Et Astronaut Sin, 2009, 30: 319–324
Hu C H, Zhang Q, Qiao Y K. A strong tracking particle filter with application to fault prediction. Acta Automat Sin, 2008, 34: 1522–1528
Chen M Z, Zhou D H, Liu G P. A new particle predictor for fault prediction of nonlinear time-varying systems. Dev Chem Eng Miner Process, 2005, 13: 379–388
Box G E, Jenkins G M. Time Series Analysis Forecasting and Control. San Francisco: Holden-Day, 1970
Ho S L, Xie M. The use of ARIMA models for reliability forecasting and analysis. Comput Ind Eng, 1998, 35: 213–216
Chen H T, Huang W H, Jiang X W. Grey model based fault forecasting technique and its application in propulsion system of space. J Propul Tech, 1998, 19: 74–77
Zhang L B, Wang Z H, Zhao S X. Short-term fault prediction of mechanical rotating parts on the basis of fuzzy-grey optimizing method. Mech Syst Signal Process, 2007, 21: 856–865
Lapedes A, Farber R. Nonlinear signal processing using neural networks prediction and system modeling. USA: Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1987
Zhang G Z, Huang D S, Quan Z H. Combining a binary input encoding scheme with RBFNN for globulin protein inter-residue contact map prediction. Pattern Recogn Lett, 2005, 26: 1543–1553
Liang Y H. Evolutionary neural network modeling for forecasting the field failure data of repairable systems. Exp Syst Appl, 2007, 33: 1090–1096
Hu S S, Zhang Z D. Fault prediction for nonlinear time series based on neural network. Acta Automat Sin, 2007, 33: 744–748
Li R Y, Kang R. Failure rate forecasting method based on neural networks. Acta Aeronaut Et Astronaut Sin, 2008, 29: 357–363
Wang Y M, Elhag M S T. A comparison of neural network, evidential reasoning and multiple regression analysis in modeling bridge risks. Exp Syst Appl, 2007, 32: 336–348
Vapnik V N. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. New York: Springer, 1995
Pai P F, Hong W C. Software reliability forecasting by support vector machines with simulated annealing algorithms. J Syst Softw, 2006, 79: 747–755
Pai P F. Systems reliability forecasting based on support vector machines with genetic algorithms. Math Comput Model, 2006, 43: 262–247
Chen K Y. Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms. Reliab Eng Syst Safe, 2007, 92: 423–432
Li H R, Xu B H. Fault prognosis of hydraulic pump in the missile launcher. Acta Armamentarii, 2009, 30: 900–906
Wang Y, Guo W. Local prediction of the chaotic fh-code based on LS-SVM. J Syst Eng Electron, 2008, 19: 65–70
Dimitras A I, Slowinski R, Susmaga R, et al. Business failure prediction using rough sets. Eur J Oper Res, 1999, 114: 263–280
Dong M. A novel approach to equipment health management based on auto-regressive hidden semi-Markov model (ARHSMM). Sci China Ser F-Inf Sci, 2008, 51: 1291–1304
Angeli C, Chatzinikolaou A. Fault prediction and compensation functions in a diagnostic knowledge-based system for hydraulic systems. J Intell Robot Syst-Theory Appl, 1999, 26: 153–165
Zhang G P. Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model. Neurocomput, 2003, 50: 159–175
Yang J B, Wang Y M, Xu D L, et al. The evidential reasoning approach for MADA under both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties. Euro J Oper Res, 2006, 171: 309–343
Yang J B, Liu J, Wang J, et al. Belief rule-base inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach-RIMER. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern A, 2006, 30: 266–285
Yang J B, Liu J, Xu D L, et al. Optimization models for training belief-rule-based systems. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern A, 2007, 37: 569–585
Yang J B, Singh M G. An evidential reasoning approach for multiple-attribute decision making with uncertainty. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern, 1994, 24: 1–18
Dempster A P. Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multi-valued mapping. Ann Math Stat, 1967, 38: 325–339
Shafer G. A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1976
Yang J B. Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under uncertainties. Euro J Oper Res, 2001, 131: 31–61
Yang J B, Xu D L. On the evidential reasoning algorithm for multiple attribute decision analysis under uncertainty. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern A, 2002, 32: 289–304
Yang J B, Xu D L. Nonlinear information aggregation via evidential reasoning in multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainty. IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern A, 2002, 32: 376–393
Wang Y M, Yang J B, Xu D L. Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach. Euro J Oper Res, 2006, 174: 1885–1913
Wang Y M, Elhag M S T. Evidential reasoning approach for bridge condition assessment. Exp Syst Appl, 2008, 34: 689–699
Xu D L, Liu J, Yang J B, et al. Inference and learning methodology of belief-rule-based expert system for pipeline leak detection. Exp Syst Appl, 2007, 32: 103–113
Herrera L J, Pomares H, Rojas I, et al. Recursive prediction for long term time series forecasting using advanced models. Neurocomput, 2007, 70: 2870–2880
Xu K, Xie M, Tang L C, et al. Application of neural networks in forecasting engine systems reliability. Appl Soft Comput J, 2003, 2: 255–268
Hu C H, Si X S, Zhou Z J, et al. An improved D-S algorithm under the new measure criteria of evidence conflict. Acta Electron Sin, 2009, 37: 1578–1583.
Zhang S G, Li W H, Ding K. A novel approach to evidence combination based on the evidence credibility. Control Theory Appl, 2009, 26: 812–814
Jousselme A L, Grenier D, Bossé E. A new distance between two bodies of evidence. Inform Fusion, 2001, 2: 91–101
Hu C H, Si X S, Yang J B. Systems reliability forecasting based on evidential reasoning algorithm with nonlinear optimization. Exp Syst Appl, 2010, 37: 2550–2562
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Si, X., Hu, C. & Zhou, Z. Fault prediction model based on evidential reasoning approach. Sci. China Inf. Sci. 53, 2032–2046 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-010-4073-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-010-4073-y