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Online remaining-useful-life estimation with a Bayesian-updated expectation-conditional-maximization algorithm and a modified Bayesian-model-averaging method

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Abstract

Online remaining-useful-life (RUL) estimation is an effective method with respect to ensuring the safety of complex-huge systems. Generally, current methods assume a specific degradation model when degradation values are observed in the initial degradation phase. However, this assumption may not always be robust enough owing to the often-ambiguous inherent incipient-degradation characteristic. Therefore, besides model-parameter uncertainty, the uncertainty of the degradation model is worth examining in online RUL estimations. In this paper, a Bayesian-updated expectation-conditional-maximization (ECM) algorithm is adopted to address the uncertainty of prior parameters, and a modified Bayesian-model-averaging method is used to deal with the uncertainty of the degradation model. Then, simulation studies are conducted to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed fusion algorithm. Results suggest that the Bayesian-updated ECM algorithm and modified Bayesian-model-averaging method effectively address the associated uncertainties of model parameters and the degradation model itself. Finally, we apply the proposed fusion algorithm to predict the RUL of a gyroscope.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFB1306100) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61922089, 61773386, 61833016, 61903376, 61673311).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Missile Engineering, Rocket Force University of Engineering, Xi’an, 710025, China

    Yong Yu, Xiaosheng Si, Changhua Hu, Jianfei Zheng & Jianxun Zhang

  2. School of Mechanical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, 710025, China

    Xiaosheng Si

Authors
  1. Yong Yu
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  2. Xiaosheng Si
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  3. Changhua Hu
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  4. Jianfei Zheng
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  5. Jianxun Zhang
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Correspondence to Xiaosheng Si.

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Yu, Y., Si, X., Hu, C. et al. Online remaining-useful-life estimation with a Bayesian-updated expectation-conditional-maximization algorithm and a modified Bayesian-model-averaging method. Sci. China Inf. Sci. 64, 112205 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-019-2724-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11432-019-2724-5

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