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Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes

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Abstract

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

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Acknowledgments

This study has been partly supported by a Marie Curie Transfer of Knowledge Fellowship BIORESC of European Community’s Sixth Framework Programme (contract number MTKD-CT-2005-029957). Furthermore we wish to thank the Aalborg Zoo Conservation Foundation (AZCF) and the Danish Natural Science Research Council for financial support to CP (Grant number: #21-01-0526, #21-03-0125 and 95095995). We thank two anonymous reviewers for invaluable suggestions and help.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biotechnology, Chemistry and Environmental Engineering, Section of Biology and Environmental Science, Aalborg University, Sohngårdsholmsvej 57, 9000, Aalborg, Denmark

    Cino Pertoldi

  2. Aalborg Zoo, Aalborg, Denmark

    Cino Pertoldi

  3. Department of BioSciences, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, Building 1540, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark

    S. Faurby, D. H. Reed & V. Loeschcke

  4. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, 621 Charles E. Young Dr. South, Los Angeles, 90024, USA

    S. Faurby

  5. Department of Biology, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY, 40292, USA

    D. H. Reed & V. Loeschcke

  6. Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, 130 Mulford Hall #3114, Berkeley, CA, 94720, USA

    J. Knape

  7. Department of Animal Ecology, Evolutionary Biology Centre (EBC), Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18D, 752 36, Uppsala, Sweden

    M. Björklund

  8. Department of Theoretical Ecology, Ecology Building, Lund University, 22362, Lund, Sweden

    P. Lundberg

  9. Integrative Ecology Unit, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki, Viikinkaari 1, P.O. Box 65, 00014, Helsinki, Finland

    V. Kaitala

  10. Interacting Minds Centre, Aarhus University, Jens Chr. Skous Vej 4, Building 1.483, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark

    L. A. Bach

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  1. Cino Pertoldi
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  2. S. Faurby
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  3. D. H. Reed
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  4. J. Knape
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  5. M. Björklund
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  6. P. Lundberg
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  7. V. Kaitala
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  8. V. Loeschcke
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  9. L. A. Bach
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Correspondence to Cino Pertoldi.

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Pertoldi, C., Faurby, S., Reed, D.H. et al. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes. Theory Biosci. 133, 165–173 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12064-014-0201-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12064-014-0201-3

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