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Error revision during morning period for deep learning and multi-variable historical data-based day-ahead solar irradiance forecast: towards a more accurate daytime forecast

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Abstract

With the increasing proportion of solar energy in the energy system, accurate solar irradiance forecast is of great significance for low-cost energy scheduling. This paper proposes a new forecasting idea for day-ahead solar irradiance forecast on the day-ahead scale: Firstly, based on formula derivation and big data correlation analysis, this paper finds out multiple parameters related to GHI, and jointly uses these parameters to forecast GHI. Error revision during morning period (ERDMP) is innovatively proposed on this basis, towards a more accurate daytime forecast. In order to prove the reliability and universality of the method, relevant data from five different-climatic regions are respectively used in the experiment. The multi-variable historical data-based day-ahead solar irradiance forecast uses deep neural networks, including Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network. ERDMP uses a linear AutoRegressive (AR) model to predict the daytime error coefficients based on the morning error coefficients. According to the results, through the proposed ERDMP, Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decreases by about 25% to 30%, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) decreases by about 20%, and R2 increases by about 5% to 10% when compared with the initial error of multi-parameter prediction models and other advanced models.

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Notes

  1. (https://nsrdb.nrel.gov/data-viewer/download/attributes).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Energy Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150001, Heilongjiang, China

    Yunxiao Chen, Yilan Zhang, Jinfu Liu & Daren Yu

  2. Department of Control Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, 150001, Heilongjiang, China

    Mingliang Bai

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  1. Yunxiao Chen
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  3. Yilan Zhang
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  4. Jinfu Liu
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Contributions

Yunxiao Chen is responsible for the experiment process and article writing.

Mingliang Bai is responsible for data collection and experimental guidance.

Yilan Zhang is responsible for literature research.

Jinfu Liu is responsible for guiding the article format.

Daren Yu is responsible for the guidance of methods and ideas.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daren Yu.

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The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests.

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Communicated by: H. Babaie

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Chen, Y., Bai, M., Zhang, Y. et al. Error revision during morning period for deep learning and multi-variable historical data-based day-ahead solar irradiance forecast: towards a more accurate daytime forecast. Earth Sci Inform 16, 2261–2283 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-023-01026-3

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