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Modeling and prediction of land use land cover change dynamics based on spatio-temporal analysis of optical and radar time series of remotely sensed images

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Abstract

Land use / land cover (LULC) has changed dramatically in recent years, especially in areas that have experienced severe climate change and population growth. Evaluation of LULC changes is the most accurate method to understand past land uses and predict their future changes. Analysis of multi-temporal optic and radar remotely sensed images is an effective tool for monitoring LULC changes, and fusion of these datasets has provided significant developments in the detection and modeling of land surface changes due to their unique features individually. Time-series image (TSI) analysis provides a history of changes in an area and allows for predicting future changes. This study aims to develop a method for modeling LULC changes and predicting future trends. To this end, a spatiotemporal regression model is proposed based on TSI. In this method, land surface changes are first modeled by considering the spatiotemporal behavioral patterns of cover changes in a given period. Then, future land covers are predicted by a spatiotemporal regression. To evaluate the proposed method, LULC changes of the Maharloo Lake (Fars province, Iran) were modeled using fused optical and radar TSI (12 consecutive image sets) and then predicted for time t = 13. Compared to ground truth data, the different land covers including; water bodies, vegetation cover, bare land, and saline area were predicted by accuracies of 84.9, 98.4, 90.7, and 97.3%, respectively, indicating the remarkable efficiency of the model proposed for predicting LULC.

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Data availability

The used and analyzed datasets during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Code availability

The codes are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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No funds, grants, or other support was received.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geomatics Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

    Saba Farshidi, Farshid Farnood Ahmadi & Vahid Sadeghi

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  1. Saba Farshidi
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  2. Farshid Farnood Ahmadi
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  3. Vahid Sadeghi
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study’s conception and design. Farshid Farnood Ahmadi and Vahid Sadeghi verified the numerical results. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Saba Farshidi and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Vahid Sadeghi.

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Communicated by: H. Babaie

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Farshidi, S., Farnood Ahmadi, F. & Sadeghi, V. Modeling and prediction of land use land cover change dynamics based on spatio-temporal analysis of optical and radar time series of remotely sensed images. Earth Sci Inform 16, 2781–2793 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-023-01072-x

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