Abstract
Global urbanization has significantly driven land use transitions, with substantial consequences for the global carbon cycle. In spite of the importance of understanding the carbon effects of land use transitions, the underlying mechanisms and suitable assessment methods remain uncertain. The study introduces a new framework to evaluate the carbon effects of land use transitions, demonstrated in the Huainan mining area, China. This study’s findings indicate that: From 2000 to 2020, the carbon source and emission increased by 2.01 × 107 t, spatial pattern of lower western and higher eastern levels. Concurrently, carbon sink increased by 2.53 × 103 t, primarily in the central and southeastern fringe areas. Over the same period, carbon storage decreased by 1.8 × 106 t, few areas of high carbon storage. Land use transitions’ various dimensions exert distinct influences on carbon effects. Among these factors, land use intensity (LUI) demonstrates the most substantial explanatory power for carbon source, carbon sink, carbon emission, and carbon storage. Land use structure (LUS) correlates positively with carbon sink, while Land use intensity (LUI) is strongly negatively correlated with carbon sinks. Land use dynamics (LUD) significantly negatively correlated with carbon storage. The lowest carbon emission (3.38 × 107 t) occurs in the ecological protection scenario, while the highest carbon storage (3.00 × 107 t) is observed in the cultivated land protection scenario. The proposed assessment framework offers valuable scientific guidance for land spatial planning and carbon reduction strategies in other regions.










Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study.
References
Amri F, Zaied YB, Lahouel BB (2019) ICT, total factor productivity, and carbon dioxide emissions in Tunisia. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 146:212–217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.05.028
Chen W, Zeng J, Li N (2021) Change in land-use structure due to urbanisation in China. J Clean Prod 321:128986. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128986
Chuai XW, Huang X, Lai L, Wang W, Peng J, Zhao R (2013) Land use structure optimization based on carbon storage in several regional terrestrial ecosystems across China. Environ Sci Policy 25:50–61. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2012.05.005
Cui X, Wei X, Liu W, Zhang F, Li Z (2019) Spatial and temporal analysis of carbon sources and sinks through land use/cover changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration region. Phys Chem Earth Parts A/B/C 110:61–70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2018.10.001
Dar SA, Dar JA (2024) Linking carbon storage with land use dynamics in a coastal Ramsar wetland. Sci Total Environ 932:173078. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.173078
Feng X, Li Y, Wang X, Yang J, Yu E, Wang S, Wu N, Xiao F (2023) Impacts of land use transitions on ecosystem services: a research framework coupled with structure, function, and dynamics. Sci Total Environ 901:166366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166366
Fu BJ (2014) The integrated studies of geography: Coupling of patterns and processes. Acta Geogr Sin 69(8):1052
Grainger A (1995) The forest transition: an alternative approach. Area 27:242–251. https://www.jstor.org/stable/20003580
He C, Zhang D, Huang Q, Zhao Y (2016) Assessing the potential impacts of urban expansion on regional carbon storage by linking the LUSD-urban and InVEST models. Environ Model Softw 75:44–58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.09.015
He X, Guan D, Yang X, Zhou L, Gao W (2024) Quantifying the trends and affecting factors of CO2 emissions under different urban development patterns: an econometric study on the Yangtze river economic belt in China. Sustainable Cities Soc 107:105443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2024.105443
Huang A, Wang Y, Tian L, Xia J, Liang Y, Sun M, Zhuang Y (2024) Research progress of carbon effect in land use system: mechanisms, simulations and optimization. J Nat Resour 39(10):2450–2470. https://doi.org/10.31497/zrzyxb.20241012
IPCC, Greenhouse gas inventory: IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. (2006) http://www.ipcc.nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html
Lai L, Huang X, Yang H, Chuai X, Zhang M, Zhong T, Chen Z, Chen Y, Wang X, Thompson JR (2016) Carbon emissions from land-use change and management in China between 1990 and 2010. Sci Adv 2(11):e1601063. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601063
Lambin EF, Meyfroidt P (2010) Land use transitions: Socio-ecological feedback versus socio-economic change. Land use Policy 27(2):108–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.09.003
Lenton TM, Xu C, Abrams JF, Ghadiali A, Loriani S, Sakschewski B, Zimm C, Ebi KL, Dunn RR, Svenning J (2023) Quantifying the human cost of global warming. Nat Sustain 6(10):1237–1247. https://doi.org/10.1038/Scenario41893-023-01132-6
Li H, Lin T (2022) Do land use structure changes impact regional carbon emissions? A spatial econometric study in Sichuan Basin, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health 19(20):13329. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013329
Li P, Zuo D, Xu Z, Zhang R, Han Y, Sun W, Pang B, Ban C, Kan G, Yang H (2021a) Dynamic changes of land use/cover and landscape pattern in a typical alpine river basin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Land Degrad Dev 32(15):4327–4339. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.4039
Li Y, Shen J, Xia C, Xiang M, Yang J (2021b) The impact of urban scale on carbon metabolism -- a case study of Hangzhou, China. J Cleaner Prod 7:126055. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126055
Li X, Liu Z, Li S, Li Y (2022a) Multi-scenario simulation analysis of land use impacts on habitat quality in Tianjin based on the PLUS model coupled with the InVEST model. Sustainability 14(11):6923. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14116923
Li X, Li S, Li Y (2022b) Multi-scenario simulation analysis of land use impacts on habitat quality in Tianjin based on the PLUS model coupled with the InVEST model. Sustainability 14(11)
Li Z, Wang F, Kang T, Wang C, Chen X, Miao Z, Zhang L, Ye Y, Zhang H (2022c) Exploring differentiated impacts of socioeconomic factors and urban forms on city-level CO2 emissions in China: spatial heterogeneity and varying importance levels. Sustainable Cities Soc 84:104028. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.104028
Li L, Li J, Peng L, Wang X, Sun S (2023) Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of land-use emissions in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area using integrated nighttime light datasets. Sci Total Environ 893:164723. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164723
Liang X, Guan Q, Clarke KC, Liu S, Wang B, Yao Y (2021) Understanding the drivers of sustainable land expansion using a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model: a case study in Wuhan, China. Comput Environ Urban Syst 85:101569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2020.101569
Liu JY (1996) The macro investigation and dynamic research of the resource and environment. Beijing China Sci Technol Press 1(3):225–230
Liu C, Cao Y, Wang J, Li J, Gong L (2024) Influence of Land Use recessive morphology on Carbon Emission in the Middle reaches of Yangtze River. Chin J Soil Sci 55(06):1543–1554. https://doi.org/10.19336/j.cnki.trtb.2024020701
Long HL (2012) Land use transition and rural transformation development. Progress Geogr 31(2):131–138
Long HL (2022) Explanation of Land Use transitions. China Land Sci 36(04):1–7
Long H, Qu Y (2018) Land use transitions and land management: a mutual feedback perspective. Land use Policy 74:111–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.03.021
Long H, Qu Y, Tu S, Zhang Y, Jiang Y (2020) Development of land use transitions research in China. J Geog Sci 30:1195–1214. https://doi.org/10.1007/Scenario11442-020-1777-9
Luo K, Wang H, Ma C, Wu C, Zheng X, Xie L (2022) Carbon sinks and carbon emissions balance of land use transition in Xinjiang, China: differences and compensation. Sci Rep 12(1):22456. https://doi.org/10.1038/Scenario41598-022-27095-w
Lv Y, Liu J, Cheng J, Andreoni V (2021) The persistent and transient total factor carbon emission performance and its economic determinants: evidence from China’s province-level panel data. J Clean Prod 316:128198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.128198
Lv T, Hu H, Tian J (2022) Assessing cultivated land–use transition in the major grain-producing areas of China based on an integrated framework. Land 11(10):1622
NDRC (2011) The guidelines for the preparation of provincial greenhouse gas inventories
Pontius RG, Boersma W, Castella J, Clarke K, de Nijs T, Dietzel C, Duan Z, Fotsing E, Goldstein N, Kok K (2008) Comparing the input, output, and validation maps for several models of land change. Ann Reg Sci 42:11–37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00168-007-0138-2
Rong T, Zhang, Li G, Wang Q, Zheng H, Chang Y, Zhang Y (2023) Spatial correlation evolution and prediction scenario of land use carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin. Ecol Ind 154:110701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101802
Song X (2017) Discussion on land use transition research framework. Acta Geogr Sin 72(03):471–487
Tan F, Yang S, Niu Z (2023) The impact of urbanization on carbon emissions: both from heterogeneity and mechanism test. Environ Dev Sustain 25(6):4813–4829. https://doi.org/10.1007/Scenario10668-022-02246-1
Theres BL, Selvakumar R (2022) Comparison of landuse/landcover classifier for monitoring urban dynamics using spatially enhanced landsat dataset. Environ Earth Sci 81(5):142. https://doi.org/10.1007/Scenario12665-022-10242-x
Turner BL, Lambin EF, Reenberg A (2007) The emergence of land change science for global environmental change and sustainability. Proc Nat Acad Sci 104(52):20666–20671. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0704119104
Wamsler C, Schäpke N, Fraude C, Stasiak D, Bruhn T, Lawrence M, Schroeder H, Mundaca L (2020) Enabling new mindsets and transformative skills for negotiating and activating climate action: lessons from UNFCCC conferences of the parties. Environ Sci Policy 112:227–235. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.06.005
Wang Y, Shataer R, Zhang Z, Zhen H, Xia T (2022) Evaluation and analysis of influencing factors of ecosystem service value change in Xinjiang under different land use types. Water 14(9):1424. https://doi.org/10.3390/w14091424
Wang M, Lin N, Dong Y, Huang X, Ma Y, Tang Y, Tao X, Lu X (2023a) The impact of farmland use transition on CO2 emissions and its spatial spillover effects from the perspective of main function-oriented zoning: the case of Huang-Huai-Hai plain. Environ Impact Assess Rev 103:107254. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2023.107254
Wang Q, Yang C, Wang M, Zhao L, Zhao Y, Zhang Q, Zhang C (2023b) Decoupling analysis to assess the impact of land use patterns on carbon emissions: a case study in the Yellow River Delta efficient eco-economic zone, China. J Clean Prod 412:137415. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.137415
Wang Y, Zhang Z, Chen X (2023c) Land use transitions and the associated impacts on carbon storage in the Poyang Lake Basin, China. Remote Sens 15(11):2703. https://doi.org/10.3390/rScenario15112703
Wen J, Chuai X, Zuo T, Cai HH, Cai L, Zhao R, Chen Y (2023) Land use change on the surface area and the influence on carbon. Ecol Ind 153:110400. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110400
Wu H, Deng K, Dong Z, Meng X, Zhang L, Jiang S, Yang L, Xu Y (2022) Comprehensive assessment of land use carbon emissions of a coal resource-based city, China. Journal of Cleaner Production 379: 134706. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134706
Xia C, Zhang J, Zhao J, Xue F, Li Q, Fang K, Shao Z, Li S, Zhou J (2023). Exploring potential of urban land-use management on carbon emissions——A case of Hangzhou, China. Ecol Indicators 146(109902)
Xiang M, Wang C, Tan Y, Yang J, Duan L, Fang Y, Li W, Shu Y, Liu M (2022) Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon storage in the Western Sichuan Plateau. Sci Rep 12(1):8114. https://doi.org/10.1038/Scenario41598-022-12175-8
Xiao W, Hu Z, Chugh YP, Zhao Y (2014) Dynamic subsidence simulation and topsoil removal strategy in high groundwater table and underground coal mining area: a case study in Shandong Province. Int J Min Reclam Environ 28(4):250–263. https://doi.org/10.1080/17480930.2013.828457
Yang J, Huang X (2021) 30 m annual land cover and its dynamics in China from 1990 to 2019. Earth Syst Sci Data Discussions 2021:1–29. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-3907-2021
Yang B, Chen X, Wang Z, Li W, Zhang C, Yao X (2020) Analyzing land use structure efficiency with carbon emissions: a case study in the Middle reaches of the Yangtze River, China. J Clean Prod 274:123076. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123076
Yang F, He F, Li S, Li M, Wu P (2023) A new estimation of carbon emissions from land use and land cover change in China over the past 300 years. Sci Total Environ 863:160963. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160963
Yearbook HS (2000) HSB (Huainan Statistics BuREAU). China Statistical, Beijing
Yuan Z, Xu J, Xu D, Liu S, Fan B, Li X (2024) The carbon emissions risk evolution and low-carbon optimization in a typical mountainous region on the western edge of the Sichuan Basin, China. Ecol Ind 162:112064. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112064
Zhai Y, Zhai G, Chen Y, Liu J (2024) Research on regional terrestrial carbon storage based on the pattern-process-function. Ecol Inf 80:102523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2024.102523
Zhang A, Deng R (2022) Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of net carbon sink efficiency in Chinese cities under the background of carbon neutrality. J Clean Prod 365:132547. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.132547
Zhang Y, Wu Q, Zhao X, Hao Y, Liu R, Yang Z, Lu Z (2018) Study of carbon metabolic processes and their spatial distribution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. Sci Total Environ 645:1630–1642. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.07.033
Zhang Y, Long H, Tu S, Ge D, Ma L, Wang L (2019) Spatial identification of land use functions and their tradeoffs/synergies in China: implications for sustainable land management. Ecol Ind 107:105550. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105550
Zhang C, Zhao L, Zhang H, Chen M, Fang R, Yao Y, Zhang Q, Wang Q (2022a) Spatial-temporal characteristics of carbon emissions from land use change in Yellow River Delta region, China. Ecol Ind 136:108623. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.108623
Zhang Y, Dai YQ, Chen YY, Ke X (2022b) The study on spatial correlation of recessive land use transformation and land use carbon emission. China Land Sci 36(06):100–112
Zhang H, Gu P, Cao G, He D, Cai B (2023a) The impact of land-use structure on carbon emission in China. Sustainability 15(3):2398. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15032398
Zhang Y, Liu X, Patouillard L, Margni M, Bulle C, Hua H, Yuan Z (2023b) Remarkable spatial disparity of Life Cycle Inventory for Coal Production in China. Environ Sci Technol 57(41):15443–15453. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.3c01860
Zhang X, Long L, Hu P (2024a) Prediction of the temporal and spatial evolution of subsidence waters in the Huainan mining area based on the CA–Markov model. Environment, Development and Sustainability, pp 1–21
Zhang X, Chen X, Zhou Y, Chen Y, Long L, Hu P (2024b) Prediction of the temporal and spatial evolution of subsidence waters in the Huainan mining area based on the CA–Markov model. Environ Dev Sustain 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/Scenario10668-024-04631-4
Zhou Y, Chen M, Tang Z, Mei Z (2021) Urbanization, land use change, and carbon emissions: quantitative assessments for city-level carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Sustainable Cities Soc 66:102701. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102701
Zhu C, Fan W, Wu X, Zhang Z, Chen Y (2024) Spatial mismatch and the attribution analysis of carbon storage demand and supply in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China. J Clean Prod 434:140036. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140036
Zou Y, Meng J, Zhu L, Han Z, Ma Y (2024) Characterizing land use transition in China by accounting for the conflicts underlying land use structure and function. J Environ Manage 349:119311. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119311
Acknowledgements
We appreciate the constructive suggestions and comments from the editor and anonymous reviewers. We would like to express our gratitude for the funding of following funds: Anhui Provincial Key Development and Research Program (202104a06020027), Impacts and Control Technologies of Photovoltaic Power Station Construction on the Ecological Environment in Coal Mining Subsidence Areas (HNKY-PG-JS-2023-228).
Funding
This research was supported by Anhui Provincial Key Development and Research Program (202104a06020027), Impacts and Control Technologies of Photovoltaic Power Station Construction on the Ecological Environment in Coal Mining Subsidence Areas (HNKY-PG-JS-2023-228).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
H.M.H: Methodology, Investigation, Writing original draft, X.Y.C: Formal analysis, X.Y.Z: Methodology. All authors reviewed the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Communicated by Hassan Babaie.
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Hua, H., Chen, X. & Zhang, X. Carbon effects of land use transitions: a process-mechanism-future perspective. Earth Sci Inform 18, 354 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01759-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01759-3