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Geospatial mapping of potential aggregate resources using integrated GIS-AHP, geotechnical, petrographic and machine learning approaches

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Abstract

The growing demand for natural aggregate resources in the construction industry requires the development of efficient techniques for identifying, demarcating, and quantifying suitable aggregate sources for minor and major projects. To accomplish this purpose, multi-criteria decision analyses (MCDA), including weighted overlay analysis (WOA), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the Random Forest (RF) machine learning (ML) approaches, were employed to identify the most suitable aggregate sites in District Kurram, Pakistan. Moreover, comprehensive geotechnical and petrographic analyses were conducted on two distinct sites, affirming the efficacy of the MCDM approach for evaluating aggregate resources. The WOA results classify the region into low suitable 44%, moderately suitable 38%, and highly suitable 18% areas. Simultaneously, the AHP technique for resource extraction revealed a corresponding distribution with 39.53% lowly suitable, 29.12% moderately suitable, and 31.35% highly suitable, and the RF model classified 35.4% of the terrain as “lowly suitability,” 27.0% as “moderately suitable,” and 37.6% as “highly suitable,” showing an improved classification accuracy compared to traditional MCDA methods. Among the three models evaluated, the RF model, with the highest (AUC of 0.92), exhibited the best performance in aggregate suitability mapping, significantly surpassing the accuracy of the AHP (AUC of 0.88) and WOA (AUC of 0.83) models. Geotechnical and petrographic analyses validated the MCDA and ML approaches, confirming that the sites meet engineering standards. Simple regression analysis highlighted the crucial relationship, including a positive association between water absorption and Los Angeles abrasion value, and negative correlations between aggregate impact value with flakiness index, and Los Angeles abrasion value with elongation Index. Moreover, this research emphasizes the role of petrological content in influencing the engineering properties of rocks. Consequently, this integrated approach empowers informed decision-making by regional authorities, ensuring sustainable utilization for various civil engineering projects.

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Data availability

All data generated or analyzed during this study are included in this manuscript. The machine learning code used was sourced from publicly available platforms, such as GitHub, and was modified to align with the objectives of our study. Additional information or data can be provided upon reasonable request from the corresponding author.

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Acknowledgements

The authors sincerely thank three reviewers who have provided comments and suggestions that largely improved the manuscript. We also extend our appreciation to the Institute of Rock and Soil Mechanics, UCAS, Wuhan for providing facilities for lab experiments. Javid Hussain is an awardee for the ANSO Scholarship 2023-PhD. Nafees Ali is an awardee for the ANSO Scholarship 2021-PhD.

Funding

This study was conducted without external funding. All resources and materials used in this research were provided by the authors or their affiliated institutions.

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Contributions

JH: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal Analysis, Methodology, Investigation, Software, writing–original draft, Writing–review and editing. CJ: Investigation, Project administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing–review, and editing. XDF: Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Supervision, Validation, Writing–review and editing. SMI: Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Writing–review and editing. NA: Conceptualization, Data curation, Methodology, Investigation, Software, Supervision, Validation, Project Administration, Visualization, Writing–review and editing. AH: Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Resources, Writing–review and editing, HI: Data Curation, Formal Analysis, Investigation, Resources, Writing–review and editing.

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Correspondence to Jian Chen.

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Communicated by Hassan Babaie.

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Hussain, J., Ali, N., Fu, X. et al. Geospatial mapping of potential aggregate resources using integrated GIS-AHP, geotechnical, petrographic and machine learning approaches. Earth Sci Inform 18, 336 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01794-0

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