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Impact analysis of reductions in tram services in rural areas in Japan using smart card data

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Abstract

Rural cities in Japan need to maintain public transport services because the proportion of elderly people in the population is increasing. However, measures to reduce the frequency of public transport services are under consideration in such cities because the number of passengers and the income necessary to keep services in operation are both decreasing. This study empirically analyzes the change in the number of tram passengers after the frequency of service was reduced in the study area. Especially, an analysis is applied to a survival time model using smart card data to evaluate what origin–destination pairs between tram stops (tram OD) can maintain a suitable number of passengers. The parameters estimated in the model show that a reduction in the number of trams does not directly lead to a change in the number of tram OD passengers. However, the average number of tram OD passengers and its variance are significant factors in explaining the decrease in the number of tram OD passengers. Sensitivity analysis by using the estimated model during the period of study shows that a tram OD pair that originates in a suburban area and terminates in a city center tends to have a higher probability of survival, but a tram OD pair originating from a city center tends to have a lower probability of survival. The results of this study are fundamental materials for a discussion on which tram OD pairs should be considered by public transport authorities to maintain or increase the number of passengers.

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(map courtesy Tosadenki Railway Co., Ltd.)

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Mr. Kenichi Uchiyama of DESUCA Co. Ltd., who provided us with very valuable and interesting data for this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Systems Engineering, Kochi University of Technology, 185 Tosayamadacho-miyanokuchi, Kami, Kochi, 782-8502, Japan

    Hiroaki Nishiuchi

  2. Department of Transportation Systems Engineering, College of Science and Technology, Nihon University, 7-24-1-744 Narashinodai, Funabashi, Chiba, 274-8501, Japan

    Yasuyuki Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Todoroki

  3. Department of Transdisciplinary Science and Engineering, School of Environment and Society, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1-i4-22, O-okayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, 152-8550, Japan

    Tomoya Kawasaki

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  1. Hiroaki Nishiuchi
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  2. Yasuyuki Kobayashi
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  4. Tomoya Kawasaki
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Correspondence to Hiroaki Nishiuchi.

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Nishiuchi, H., Kobayashi, Y., Todoroki, T. et al. Impact analysis of reductions in tram services in rural areas in Japan using smart card data. Public Transp 10, 291–309 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12469-018-0185-3

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