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Deep Nonlinear Ensemble Framework for Stock Index Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis

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Abstract

Stock index forecasting plays an important role in avoiding risk and increasing returns for financial regulators and investors. However, due to the volatility and uncertainty of the stock market, forecasting stock indices accurately is challenging. In this paper, a deep nonlinear ensemble framework is proposed for stock index forecasting and uncertainty analysis. (1) Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is utilized to extract features from a raw stock index and eliminate the interference. (2) Enhanced weighted support vector machine (EWSVM) is proposed for forecasting each component that is decomposed, of which the penalty weights are based on the time order and the hyperparameters are optimized using the simulated annealing algorithm. (3) Recurrent neural network (RNN) is used to integrate the forecast of each component into the final point forecast. (4) Gaussian process regression (GPR) is applied to obtain the interval forecast of the original stock index. Two practical cases (Nikkei 225 Index, Japan and Hang Seng Index, Hong Kong, China) are utilized to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. In terms of the results of point forecasting, the MAE, \({R}^{2}\), MAPE, and RMSE of Nikkei 225 Index are 66.0745, 0.9972, 0.0066, and 80.0381, and those of Hang Seng Index are 79.2145,0.9968, 0.0073, and 96.7740. In terms of the results of interval forecasting, the \({CP}_{95\%}\), \({MWP}_{95\%}\), and \({MC}_{95\%}\) of Nikkei 225 Index are 0.89979, 0.05746, and 0.06385, and those of Hang Seng Index are 0.97985, 0.28223, and 0.28803. Forecasting stock indices accurately is crucial for investment decision and risk management and is extremely meaningful to investors and financial regulators. In this paper, the SSA-EWSVM-RNN-GPR model is used to forecast the closing prices of stock indices, and compared with eight benchmark models, the proposed SSA-EWSVM-RNN-GPR model can be an effective tool for both point and interval forecasting of stock indices.

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Abbreviations

ANN:

Artificial neutral network

ARMA:

Auto-regressive moving average model

BP:

Back propagation network

CP α :

Coverage probability

EMD:

Empirical mode decomposition

EWSVM:

Enhanced weighted support vector machine

GARCH:

Generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroskedasticity

GP:

Gaussian process

GPR:

Gaussian process regression

MAE:

Mean absolute error

MAPE:

Mean absolute percentage error

MC α :

MWPα Divided by CPα

MSE:

Mean square error

MWP α :

Mean width percentage

RBF:

Radial basis function

RIM:

Residual income model

RNN:

Recurrent neutral network

RMSE:

Root mean square error

R 2 :

Coefficient of determination

SAA:

Simulated annealing algorithm

SSA:

Singular spectrum analysis

SVM:

Support vector machine

SVD:

Singular value decomposition

SWLSTM:

Shared weight long short-term memory network

T-EOF:

Time-empirical orthogonal function

WD:

Wavelet decomposition

WSVM:

Weighted support vector machine

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Funding

This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71971122 and 71501101).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jujie Wang

  2. Changwang School of Honors, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Liu Feng, Yang Li & Chunchen Feng

  3. School of Computer and Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Junjie He

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  1. Jujie Wang
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Correspondence to Jujie Wang.

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Wang, J., Feng, L., Li, Y. et al. Deep Nonlinear Ensemble Framework for Stock Index Forecasting and Uncertainty Analysis. Cogn Comput 13, 1574–1592 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12559-021-09961-3

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