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An emergency decision making method based on the multiplicative consistency of probabilistic linguistic preference relations

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Abstract

As the evolution of emergencies is often uncertain, it may lead to multiple emergency scenarios. According to the characteristics of emergency management, this paper proposes an emergency decision support method by using the probabilistic linguistic preference relations (PLPRs) whose elements are the pairwise comparisons of alternatives given by the decision-makers (DMs) in the form of probabilistic linguistic term sets (PLTSs). As the decision data are limited, it is difficult for the DMs to provide exact occurrence probabilities of all possible emergency scenarios. Thus, we propose a probability correction method by using the computer-aided tool named the case-based reasoning (CBR) to obtain more accurate and reasonable occurrence probabilities of the probabilistic linguistic elements (PLEs). Then, we introduce a multiplicative consistency index to judge whether a PLPR is consistent or not. Afterwards, an acceptable multiplicative consistency-based emergency decision support method is proposed to get more reliable results. Furthermore, a case study about the emergency decision making in a petrochemical plant fire accident is conducted to illustrate the proposed method. Finally, some comparative analyses are performed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

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Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 71571123, 71532007, 71771155), and the Major Program of the National Social Science Fund of China (Grant No. 17ZDA092).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610207, China

    Jie Gao

  2. School of Economics and Management, Sichuan Tourism University, Chengdu, 610100, China

    Jie Gao

  3. Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, 610064, China

    Zeshui Xu, Peijia Ren & Huchang Liao

  4. School of Computer and Software, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, Jiangsu, China

    Zeshui Xu

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  1. Jie Gao
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  2. Zeshui Xu
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  4. Huchang Liao
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Correspondence to Zeshui Xu.

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Gao, J., Xu, Z., Ren, P. et al. An emergency decision making method based on the multiplicative consistency of probabilistic linguistic preference relations. Int. J. Mach. Learn. & Cyber. 10, 1613–1629 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13042-018-0839-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13042-018-0839-0

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