Traffic Congestion Forecasting Based on Possibility Theory

Abstract

Traffic congestion state identification is one of the most important tasks of ITS. Traffic flow is a nonlinear complicated system. Traffic congestion state is affected by many factors, such as road channelization, weather condition, drivers’ different driving behavior and so on. It is difficult to collect all necessary traffic information. Traffic congestion auto identification result based on incomplete traffic information exists uncertain. Little work has been done to analyze the uncertainty. Possibility theory introduced by Zadeh is an efficient means to present incomplete knowledge. Possibility distribution determination is an important task of possibility theory. In this paper, possibility theory is used to describe the uncertainty of traffic state. The possibility distribution of traffic state is determined according to the probability distribution of traffic flow parameters, such as volume, speed and occupancy and so on. The multi-variable distribution of traffic flow parameters is determined with large-scale traffic flow data. Large-scale traffic congestion samples are generated with parallel k-mean clustering method. Traffic congestion forecasting is based on the forecasting of traffic flow parameters with SVM (Support Vector Machines). At last, a practical example is analyzed with the proposed method.