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Analysis of the Different Duration Stages of Accidents with Hazard-Based Model

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Abstract

This study investigates and identifies significant contributing variables that affect the duration of three traffic accident stages, namely, preparation, travel, and clearance as well as the total duration of the accident. Accelerated failure time (AFT) hazard-based models were developed with different underlying probability distributions for the hazard function, including models with gamma heterogeneity and models with time-varying covariates. The results indicate that the gamma distribution model with a time variable is the best model for the four different duration stages, and different parameters and variables were appropriate for modeling the different duration stages of traffic accidents. The findings of this study provide an important demonstration of method and an empirical basis for accident management programs.

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Acknowledgments

The research was supported by the Beijing Committee of Science and Technology, China (Grant No. Z121100000312101) supported this research.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Transportation Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China

    Ruimin Li & Huapu Lu

  2. Beijing Traffic Management Bureau, No.1 Fuchengmen North St, Xicheng Dist, Beijing, 100037, China

    Min Guo

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  1. Ruimin Li
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Correspondence to Ruimin Li.

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Li, R., Guo, M. & Lu, H. Analysis of the Different Duration Stages of Accidents with Hazard-Based Model. Int. J. ITS Res. 15, 7–16 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13177-015-0115-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13177-015-0115-6

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