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Fault prediction of pneumatic valves in an LNG plant by the DGM(1, 1) model

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Abstract

Stop production and overhaul is an annual work of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) plant. However, the shutdown maintenance work under different market conditions needs comprehensive allocation of resources to achieve the purpose of economy, speed and safety. In order to study the fault situation of pneumatic valve, targeted maintenance work is carried out. In this paper, a workflow of DGM(1, 1) prediction model of grey system and sampling inspection method is proposed. With the help of DGM(1, 1) to predict the universality of "poor information and small sample" and the partial detection method of sampling inspection, the expected engineering purpose is achieved. The research results are as follows: (1) The failure situation of pneumatic valve in LNG plant from 2015 to 2020 is brought into the model to compare the actual value and predicted value in 2020, and the residual error is between 0.92 and 3, which indicates that the predicted result of the model is reliable. It is predicted that the comprehensive failure rate will remain at around 18% in 2021 and 2022. Next, we can continue to use DGM(1, 1) model to analyze the redundancy of actuator measurable signals. Make full use of the field known data, construct the functional relationship of measurable variables of actuators, realize on-line real-time judgment of actuator faults, and dynamically predict the failure rate of parts. (2) For maintenance work, 130 pneumatic valves need to be dismantled, with emphasis on the inspection of three components such as drive gas filter, electromagnetic valve and actuator. If the damage number is found to be less than or equal to 4, production can continue after the spare parts are repaired and replaced, otherwise, total inspection is required. In the next step, the relationship between valve distribution position and parts damage frequency should be counted, and the damage frequency should be reduced by strengthening sealing and changing installation methods.

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Funding

This work was supported by the Science and Technology Research Project of Hubei Provincial Department of Education (Q20171301).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou, 434000, Hubei, People’s Republic of China

    Yan Chen, Junyi Qiu, Mengyi Wang & Yuan Yang

  2. Huanqing Oil Production Plant, Yumen Oilfield Company, Petrochina, Qingyang, China

    Jiaqi Rao & Yuan Yang

  3. Onshore Operation Area of Jidong Oilfield of Petrochina, Tangshan, China

    Tian Xia & Yuan Yang

Authors
  1. Yan Chen
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  2. Junyi Qiu
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  3. Mengyi Wang
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  4. Jiaqi Rao
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  5. Tian Xia
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  6. Yuan Yang
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Correspondence to Yan Chen.

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Main points: 1. A fault prediction method of pneumatic control valve based on DGM(1, 1) model of grey system theory is proposed. 2. After the improvement of the maintenance scheme of pneumatic valves in 2021, the failure data of pneumatic valves in 2022 will be further counted. 3. Using the method of sampling statistics, the rapid maintenance project scheme is obtained.

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Chen, Y., Qiu, J., Wang, M. et al. Fault prediction of pneumatic valves in an LNG plant by the DGM(1, 1) model. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag 15, 775–785 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-023-02130-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-023-02130-9

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