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A Novel Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model Based on the Hybrid Wolf Pack Algorithm and Ordered Weighted Averaging Aggregation Operator

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Abstract

The fuzzy time series has received extensive attention since it was proposed and it has been widely used in various practical applications. This study proposes a new fuzzy time series forecasting model which considers a hybrid wolf pack algorithm (HWPA) and an ordered weighted averaging (OWA) aggregation operator for fuzzy time series. The HWPA is adopted to obtain a suitable partition of the universe of discourse to promote the forecasting performance. Furthermore, the improved OWA aggregation method is applied to make the aggregation of historical information more practical. To overcome the deficiency of slow convergence speed and easy to entrap into the local extremum of the wolf pack algorithm (WPA), the chemotactic behavior and elimination–dispersal behavior of bacterial foraging optimization (BFO) are employed to optimize the scouting behavior of WPA. The actual enrollments data of the University of Alabama and Taiwan Futures Exchange (TAIFEX) are utilized as the benchmark data and the computational results of both training and testing phases all indicate that the new forecasting model outperforms other existing models. The robustness of the proposed model is also tested and the robust results can be obtained when the historical data are inaccurate.

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Acknowledgements

The authors express their gratitude to the Editor and the anonymous Reviewers for their valuable and constructive comments. And this work was supported by the Chongqing Social Science Planning Project (No. 2018YBSH085), Graduate Teaching Reform Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission (YJG183074), Major entrustment projects of the Chongqing Bureau of quality and technology supervision (CQZJZD2018001), Chongqing research and innovation project of graduate students (CYS18252), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.11671001).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Intelligent Analysis and Decision on Complex Systems, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China

    Sidong Xian & Yue Cheng

  2. School of automation, Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Chongqing, 400065, China

    Tangjin Li

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  1. Sidong Xian
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  2. Tangjin Li
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Correspondence to Sidong Xian.

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Xian, S., Li, T. & Cheng, Y. A Novel Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model Based on the Hybrid Wolf Pack Algorithm and Ordered Weighted Averaging Aggregation Operator. Int. J. Fuzzy Syst. 22, 1832–1850 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40815-020-00906-w

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